Sean TrendeOct 27, 2026
Discussing the Texas mid-decade map, they said Republicans would likely capture the redrawn Texas 9th and Texas 32nd districts, gaining a couple of seats even if the rest of the map underperforms.
Said on air, transcribed by us · RealClearPolitics PodcastHear the original
What Sean Trende said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromAt the end of the day, like, Texas 9 and Texas 32 probably flipped, so you get a couple seats there.
- Where it was said
- RealClearPolitics Podcast
- The episode
- One Week Until the Midterms
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 27
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
- 1Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Texas's district 32“at the end of the day, like, Texas 9 and Texas 32 probably flipped, so you get a couple seats there”
- 2Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Texas's district 9“at the end of the day, like, Texas 9 and Texas 32 probably flipped, so you get a couple seats there”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Texas's district 321 | Race Winners | Jace Yarbrough won | 100 | 50 | +50.5 | |
| Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Texas's district 92 | Race Winners | Leticia Gutierrez won | 0 | 50 | −50.5 | |
| 2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled | 50 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Texas's district 32
What happenedJace Yarbrough woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 50100this call−50a naive guess=50better than naive×1.01difficulty=+50.5skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-house-tx-32
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 50.5
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Jace Yarbrough
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. House election in Texas's district 32
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Jace Yarbrough
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Texas's district 9
What happenedLeticia Gutierrez woncalled Alex Mealer0Miss · naive 500this call−50a naive guess=−50worse than naive×1.01difficulty=−50.5skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-house-tx-09
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- −50.5
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Leticia Gutierrez
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. House election in Texas's district 9
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Alex Mealer
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 50
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.