Todd McShayApr 15, 2026
McShay's mock draft 4.0 has Fernando Mendoza and David Bailey going 1-2 to the Raiders and Jets, the Saints trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Titans taking Jeremiah Love at 4, the Giants taking Francis Mauigoa at 5 (though they'd now switch to Sonny Styles), the Cowboys trading up to 6, the Jets trading up to 7 for Carnell Tate, and Arizona trading up to 30 for Ty Simpson. They also predict seven offensive tackles go in the first round and that Love, Styles, Downs and Reese all go in the top seven.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Todd McShay said
I think they're all gonna go there's a really good chance they all go in the top seven.
- Where it was said
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
- The episode
- Hour 2: Todd McShay Breaks Down His New NFL Mock Draft, plus a Horrible ABS Challenge and an Epic Coach Rant
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidApr 15
- GradedAug 17–Oct 1
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mock Draft Picks | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Position Order Calls | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team Draft Slot Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| All | 14 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
How each call scored
19 checkable claims — 14 mock draft picks, 4 team draft slot calls and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
15 of 19 have settled so far, averaging 90.6 out of 100, against 47.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 4 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the room on 1 and below it on 3.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
Dallas Cowboys · 2026 season · overall pick4 calls from 4 pundits between 6 overall pick and 21 overall pick. Todd McShay said 6 overall pick. the room's median is 8 overall pick. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Mock Draft Picks13 hits · 1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
Ty Simpson to be picked at number 30
“you have them moving from thirty fourth overall, second pick of night two, to the third to last pick of night one, and take Tye Simpson ... I did I think a fifth and a sixth round pick to move up a handful of spots to to 30.”
Went 13mocked at 3047.88Closemock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 47.88
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 47.88
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“Mendoza and Bailey going one, two to the Raiders and Jets respectively.”
Went 1mocked at 1100Hitmock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 5
“why do you have them taking Mount Ella fifth here? ... so they were leaning towards Maui Noah. I went Maui Noah.”
Went 10mocked at 580.52Hitmock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7
“Jets are gonna move up to seven for Carnell Tate ... Why do you like this as well?”
Went 4mocked at 787.81Hitmock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
Arvell Reese to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)
“the best players in this draft are the running back Jeremiah Love, the the off ball linebacker Sonny Styles, conversion guy Arbel Rees... I think they're all gonna go there's a really good chance they all go in the top seven.”
Went 5100Hitmock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top seven (picks 1–7)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 8
“And Mansoor Delaney's gonna be sitting there at eight probably”
Went 6mocked at 891.7Hitmock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Mansoor Delane
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)
“I think they're all gonna go there's a really good chance they all go in the top seven.”
Went 3100Hitmock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top seven (picks 1–7)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked “not gonna go in the top 10” (picks 1–10)
“I'd also throw in there Venga Yowane, but he's a guard, and he's not gonna go in the top 10.”
Went 1484.09Hitmock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Olaivavega Ioane
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- not gonna go in the top 10 (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“Mendoza and Bailey going one, two to the Raiders and Jets respectively.”
Went 2mocked at 2100Hitmock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
Sonny Styles to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)
“It's on Sonny Styles. It's on Caleb Downs. It's on Jeremiah Love. I think they're all gonna go... top seven.”
Went 7100Hitmock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top seven (picks 1–7)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“your latest mock draft 4.0 that came out on this very day has Arbel Reiss going to the Saints third overall”
Went 5mocked at 391.7Hitmock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4
“it makes sense that the Titans would then go and take Jeremiah Love with Bailey and Reese gone”
Went 3mocked at 495.76Hitmock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 6
“I've got the Cowboys trading up for Styles ... if you move up and get a Sonny Styles at number six”
Went 7mocked at 695.76Hitmock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
Caleb Downs to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)
“It's on Sonny Styles. It's on Caleb Downs. It's on Jeremiah Love. I think they're all gonna go... top seven.”
Went 1184.09Hitmock order 88.33 − 50 for a shuffle = 38.33 × 1 difficulty = +38.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- top seven (picks 1–7)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
Position Order Calls1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
K.C. Concepcion to be 4th receiver off the board
“even though everyone's saying Elmore Cooper is the fourth receiver, honestly, it would be Casey Concepcion as the as the fourth receiver”
100Hit100 − 13.82 naive = 86.18 × 1 difficulty = +86.18 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 36 at random averages 13.82
- skill:
- 86.18
- player:
- K.C. Concepcion
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 13.82
- position:
- receiver
- class size:
- 36
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 4
- predicted order:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Team Draft Slot Calls4 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Arizona Cardinals to pick at number 30
“I did I think a fifth and a sixth round pick to move up a handful of spots to to 30.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Dallas Cowboys to pick at number 6
“I've got the Cowboys trading up for Styles ... but they'd like to move up to six”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
New Orleans Saints to pick at number 3
“has Arbel Reiss going to the Saints third overall ... Are they gonna trade away, you know, a second round pick to in order to go up and and get that guy?”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Ty Simpson, Arizona Cardinals, Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders, Francis Mauigoa, New York Giants, Carnell Tate, New York Jets, Arvell Reese, Mansoor Delane, Jeremiyah Love, Olaivavega Ioane, David Bailey, Sonny Styles, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans, Dallas Cowboys, Caleb Downs, K.C. Concepcion
Others on the same people
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
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Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picked the Giants to beat the Commanders at home in the Thursday night Week 10 game, 23-14, citing New York's dominant front seven containing Jayden Daniels.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin predicted final scores for seven Week 10 games, taking the Giants over the Commanders, the Lions, Chiefs, Packers, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens to win their respective matchups.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Reviewing Week 7 college games, Campbell projects a slate of draft outcomes: Tennessee's Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick in 2026, Alabama's Bray Hubbard as a Day 2 pick and Yhonzae Pierre as a potential first-rounder, Jeremiah Smith as one of the very first players drafted, Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in the 2027 draft, Colin Simmons and Trevor Goosby as top-10 picks, and Jadan Baugh as a first-round pick.