Todd McShay· Apr 15, 2026
McShay's mock draft 4.0 has Fernando Mendoza and David Bailey going 1-2 to the Raiders and Jets, the Saints trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Titans taking Jeremiah Love at 4, the Giants taking Francis Mauigoa at 5 (though he'd now switch to Sonny Styles), the Cowboys trading up to 6, the Jets trading up to 7 for Carnell Tate, and Arizona trading up to 30 for Ty Simpson. He also predicts seven offensive tackles go in the first round and that Love, Styles, Downs and Reese all go in the top seven.
“I think they're all gonna go there's a really good chance they all go in the top seven.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
19 checkable claims — 14 mock draft picks, 4 team draft slot calls and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
15 of 19 have settled so far, averaging 90.6 out of 100, against 47.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 4 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the room on 1 and below it on 3.
Where this call stands in the room
Arizona Cardinals · 2026 season · overall pick5 calls from 3 pundits between 1 overall pick and 30 overall pick. Todd McShay said 30 overall pick. the room's median is 1 overall pick. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Their call against what happened
positional finishTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
19 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Position Order CallsK.C. ConcepcionApr 15, 2026
K.C. Concepcion to be 4th receiver off the board
“even though everyone's saying Elmore Cooper is the fourth receiver, honestly, it would be Casey Concepcion as the as the fourth receiver”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 13.82+86.18 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 36 at random averages 13.82
- skill:
- 86.18
- player:
- K.C. Concepcion
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 13.82
- position:
- receiver
- class size:
- 36
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 4
- predicted order:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksSonny StylesApr 15, 2026
Sonny Styles to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)
“It's on Sonny Styles. It's on Caleb Downs. It's on Jeremiah Love. I think they're all gonna go... top seven.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 88.33 against a shuffle’s 50+38.33 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top seven (picks 1–7)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
- Mock Draft PicksSonny StylesDallas CowboysApr 15, 2026
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 6
“I've got the Cowboys trading up for Styles ... if you move up and get a Sonny Styles at number six”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 88.33 against a shuffle’s 50+38.33 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyNew York JetsApr 15, 2026
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“Mendoza and Bailey going one, two to the Raiders and Jets respectively.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 88.33 against a shuffle’s 50+38.33 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.33
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.33
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveTennessee TitansApr 15, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4
“it makes sense that the Titans would then go and take Jeremiah Love with Bailey and Reese gone”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksMansoor DelaneApr 15, 2026
Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 8
“And Mansoor Delaney's gonna be sitting there at eight probably”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Mansoor Delane
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseApr 15, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)
“the best players in this draft are the running back Jeremiah Love, the the off ball linebacker Sonny Styles, conversion guy Arbel Rees... I think they're all gonna go there's a really good chance they all go in the top seven.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top seven (picks 1–7)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew Orleans SaintsApr 15, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“your latest mock draft 4.0 that came out on this very day has Arbel Reiss going to the Saints third overall”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateNew York JetsApr 15, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7
“Jets are gonna move up to seven for Carnell Tate ... Why do you like this as well?”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsApr 15, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)
“It's on Sonny Styles. It's on Caleb Downs. It's on Jeremiah Love. I think they're all gonna go... top seven.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- top seven (picks 1–7)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveApr 15, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)
“I think they're all gonna go there's a really good chance they all go in the top seven.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top seven (picks 1–7)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonArizona CardinalsApr 15, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked at number 30
“you have them moving from thirty fourth overall, second pick of night two, to the third to last pick of night one, and take Tye Simpson ... I did I think a fifth and a sixth round pick to move up a handful of spots to to 30.”
Close · 48Scored 47.88 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 47.88
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 47.88
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaNew York GiantsApr 15, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 5
“why do you have them taking Mount Ella fifth here? ... so they were leaning towards Maui Noah. I went Maui Noah.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“Mendoza and Bailey going one, two to the Raiders and Jets respectively.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksOlaivavega IoaneApr 15, 2026
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked “not gonna go in the top 10” (picks 1–10)
“I'd also throw in there Venga Yowane, but he's a guard, and he's not gonna go in the top 10.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Olaivavega Ioane
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- not gonna go in the top 10 (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew Orleans SaintsApr 15, 2026
New Orleans Saints to pick at number 3
“has Arbel Reiss going to the Saints third overall ... Are they gonna trade away, you know, a second round pick to in order to go up and and get that guy?”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew York JetsApr 15, 2026
New York Jets to pick at number 7
“Jets are gonna move up to seven for Carnell Tate”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsDallas CowboysApr 15, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to pick at number 6
“I've got the Cowboys trading up for Styles ... but they'd like to move up to six”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsArizona CardinalsApr 15, 2026
Arizona Cardinals to pick at number 30
“I did I think a fifth and a sixth round pick to move up a handful of spots to to 30.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Nate TiceScore Predictions · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.
- Pat FitzmauriceMock Draft Picks · Makai LemonHit · 96Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30.