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Clay Travis#15 of 21 election pundits · Oct 29, 2022

Travis said Andy Ogles would win the competitive congressional seat covering part of the Nashville area, calling them the area's next congressman.

Said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton ShowHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Andy Ogles wonWhat happenedcertified result
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
#15Clay Travis’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Clay Travis said

who I think is going to be the next Congressman from the Nashville area, Andy Oguls
Our reading: Andy Ogles to win the 2022 U.S. House election in Tennessee's district 5
Where it was said
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The episode
Weekly Review With Clay and Buck H1 - Oct 29 2022
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidOct 29, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Andy Ogles to win the 2022 U.S. House election in Tennessee's district 5

    What happenedAndy Ogles woncertified result
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.01difficulty+101skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2022-house-tn-05
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    101
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    fec-2022
    who won:
    Andy Ogles
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2022 U.S. House election in Tennessee's district 5
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Andy Ogles
    days before the vote when called:
    9
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the winner's party:
    Republican
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

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