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Nick Wright· Oct 3, 2026

On his Week 4 pick show, Nick Wright called the Bills to beat the Patriots comfortably (roughly 28-13), the Jaguars to beat the Bengals outright in a one-point game, the Chiefs to win in Las Vegas scoring around 30, said he'd be stunned if Seattle lost to the Chargers, and said he'd be gobsmacked if Tennessee beat Baltimore.

“I think the Bills win this game easily. And we're talking like 28-13 type of game.”

said on air or in an interview · What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast) · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks and 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 82.4 out of 100, against 57.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensOct 3, 2026

    Baltimore Ravens to beat Tennessee

    “I would be. Gobsmacked if the Titans won this game.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    BAL
    score:
    18-24
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BAL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    BAL
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    15

    Closing line (Oct 4): Ravens by 11.5 · favorite pick, Ravens about 6 in 7 (85%).

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  • Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsOct 3, 2026

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat Vegas

    “I think the Raiders are going to be able to score, but I think the Chiefs are going to score 30. So this feels to me like 30 to 24, 31 to 23, something in that range.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+183 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    30-27
    skill:
    183
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LV
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    15

    Closing line (Oct 4): Chiefs by 4.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 2 in 3 (66%).

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  • Score PredictionsJacksonville JaguarsOct 3, 2026

    Jacksonville Jaguars 28 — Cincinnati 27

    “I think the Jags win this game. I think this is 28, 27, Jacksonville.”

    Hit · 90Scored 90.48a naive guess scored 40.48+91.5 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    22-17
    skill:
    91.5
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    90.48
    baseline:
    40.48
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    5
    weeks left when called:
    15
    naive home margin:
    1
    predicted margin:
    1

    Closing line (Oct 4): Bengals by 2.5, total 51.5 · this 28–27 calls a Jaguars win (by 1; the line gave the Jaguars 43%) and more points (55).

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  • Score PredictionsBuffalo BillsOct 3, 2026

    Buffalo Bills 28 — New England 13

    “I think the Bills win this game easily. And we're talking like 28-13 type of game.”

    Miss · 21Scored 21.43a naive guess scored 45.24-43.57 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    29-26
    skill:
    −43.57
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    21.43
    baseline:
    45.24
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    15
    naive home margin:
    1
    predicted margin:
    15

    Closing line (Oct 4): Bills by 7, total 49.5 · this 28–13 calls a bigger Bills win (by 15) and fewer points (41).

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  • Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksOct 3, 2026

    Seattle Seahawks to beat Chargers

    “It would be one of the biggest stunners of the season to me if Seattle loses back-to-back games here... So I like Seattle.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    23-30
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    15

    Closing line (Oct 4): Seahawks by 7 · favorite pick, Seahawks about 3 in 4 (74%).

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