Ronna Romney McDanielOct 25, 2026

The former RNC chair predicted Republican Mike Rogers wins Michigan's Senate race, that Democrats take the House, and that Republicans hold the Senate because independents in the contested red states lean Republican.

Said on air, transcribed by us · State of the Union (CNN)Hear the original

1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 2 misses · all settled

33.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

33.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

1Races calledevery call on each below

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Ronna Romney McDaniel said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I think it looks like the house is is probably gonna go to Democrats. That's just what I'm seeing, in your external polls. I think Republicans keep the senate.

Ronna Romney McDaniel, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: State of the Union (CNN)
The episode: Ballot Battles and Election Integrity: A Closer Look
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 25
Election DayNov 3
GradedNov 10

1Control of Congress“I think Republicans keep the senate. I think where they're they're fighting in these red states, in those states, independents lean Republican, and I think Republicans keep the senate.”
2Control of Congress“I think it looks like the house is is probably gonna go to Democrats. That's just what I'm seeing, in your external polls.”
3Mike Rogers to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan“Listen. I think Mike Rogers is gonna win this race. That's how I feel.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
“I think Republicans keep the senate. I think where they're…”¹	Control of Congress	—	0	0	0
“I think it looks like the house is is probably gonna go to…”²	Control of Congress	—	100	0	+101
Mike Rogers to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan³	Race Winners	Abdul El-Sayed won	0	100	−101
3 calls · 1 hit · 2 misses · all settled			33.3	33.3

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 control of congress and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Control of Congress
“I think Republicans keep the senate. I think where they're they're fighting in these red states, in those states, independents lean Republican, and I think Republicans keep the senate.”
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.01difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
result from:
wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
chamber:
2026-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
8
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
2Control of Congress
“I think it looks like the house is is probably gonna go to Democrats. That's just what I'm seeing, in your external polls.”
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.01difficulty+101skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2026
skill:
101
topic:
elections
result from:
wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
chamber:
2026-house
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
8
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
3Race Winners
Mike Rogers to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
What happenedAbdul El-Sayed woncalled Mike Rogers
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.01difficulty−101skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-mi
election year:
2026
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Abdul El-Sayed
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Rogers
days before the vote when called:
8
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
33.3naive 33.3

The race in this take

every call on each

2026 U.S. Senate election in MichiganAbdul El-Sayed wonEvery call on it →

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More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.