Pete Prisco#51 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 9, 2026

A CBS Sports Week 1 picks column predicts final scores for all 16 games, including a Seahawks rout of the Patriots in the Super Bowl rematch and a late Chiefs win over Denver in Patrick Mahomes' return.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

5 of 16calls landed5 hits · 7 close calls · 4 misses · all settled

65.2Average accuracyout of 100, across 16 calls

52.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

16Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#51Pete Prisco’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Pete Prisco said

This rematch of the February Super Bowl will go much like that game. The Seahawks will dominate.

Pete Prisco, the lead quote

Where it was published: CBS Sports
The piece: Prisco's Week 1 NFL picks: Seahawks dominate Patriots once again, Bills end skid vs. Texans
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 9
PlayedSep 9–14
GradedSep 11–16

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses	Waiting	Calls
Score Predictions	5	7	4	0
All	5	7	4	0

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

16 checkable claims — 16 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 16 have settled, averaging 65.2 out of 100, against 52.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Score Predictions5 hits · 7 close calls · 4 missesShow ▸

Kansas City Chiefs 20 — Broncos 17
“Pick: Chiefs 20, Broncos 17”
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs 31–10called Chiefs by 3 · won by 21
57.14Close
57.14 − 51.93 naive = 5.21 × 2 difficulty = +10.42 skill
Closing line (Sep 14): Chiefs by 2.5, total 42.5 · this 20–17 calls a bigger Chiefs win (by 3) and fewer points (37).
How this was scored
score:
10-31
skill:
10.42
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
57.14
baseline:
51.93
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
21
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
0.81
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
Detroit Lions 33 — Saints 21
“Pick: Lions 33, Saints 21”
Detroit Lions
Lions 31–30called Lions by 12 · won by 1
73.81Close
73.81 − 96.35 naive = −22.54 × 2 difficulty = −45.08 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Lions by 7, total 49.5 · this 33–21 calls a bigger Lions win (by 12) and more points (54).
How this was scored
score:
30-31
skill:
−45.08
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
73.81
baseline:
96.35
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
1
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
12
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars 30 — Browns 13
“Pick: Jaguars 30, Browns 13”
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars 34–10called Jaguars by 17 · won by 24
83.33Hit
83.33 − 50 naive = 33.33 × 2 difficulty = +66.67 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Jaguars by 8.5, total 40.5 · this 30–13 calls a bigger Jaguars win (by 17) and more points (43).
How this was scored
score:
10-34
skill:
66.67
they picked:
JAX
season:
2026
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
50
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
24
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
17
Think this is wrong?
New York Jets 23 — Titans 19
“Pick: Jets 23, Titans 19”
New York Jets
Jets 23–10called Jets by 4 · won by 13
78.57Close
78.57 − 17.78 naive = 60.79 × 2 difficulty = +121.59 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Titans by 1.5, total 39.5 · this 23–19 calls a Jets win (by 4; the line gave the Jets 48%) and more points (42).
How this was scored
score:
23-10
skill:
121.59
they picked:
NYJ
season:
2026
accuracy:
78.57
baseline:
17.78
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
13
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
4
Think this is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys 30 — Giants 17
“Pick: Cowboys 30, Giants 17”
Dallas Cowboys
Giants 28–20called Cowboys by 13 · lost by 8
38.1Miss
38.1 − 79.68 naive = −41.58 × 2 difficulty = −83.17 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Cowboys by 3, total 47.5 · this 30–17 calls a bigger Cowboys win (by 13) and fewer points (47).
How this was scored
score:
20-28
skill:
−83.17
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
38.1
baseline:
79.68
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
8
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
13
Think this is wrong?
Chicago Bears 29 — Panthers 21
“Pick: Bears 29, Panthers 21”
Chicago Bears
Bears 59–37called Bears by 8 · won by 22
66.67Close
66.67 − 0 naive = 66.67 × 2 difficulty = +133.33 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bears by 3, total 47.5 · this 29–21 calls a bigger Bears win (by 8) and more points (50).
How this was scored
score:
59-37
skill:
133.33
they picked:
CHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
66.67
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
22
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
8
Think this is wrong?
Las Vegas Raiders 21 — Dolphins 17
“Pick: Raiders 21, Dolphins 17”
Las Vegas Raiders
Raiders 27–13called Raiders by 4 · won by 14
76.19Close
76.19 − 65.4 naive = 10.79 × 2 difficulty = +21.59 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Raiders by 3, total 40.5 · this 21–17 calls a bigger Raiders win (by 4) and fewer points (38).
How this was scored
score:
13-27
skill:
21.59
they picked:
LV
season:
2026
accuracy:
76.19
baseline:
65.4
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
14
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
4
Think this is wrong?
Philadelphia Eagles 30 — Commanders 21
“Pick: Eagles 30, Commanders 21”
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles 24–22called Eagles by 9 · won by 2
83.33Hit
83.33 − 93.97 naive = −10.64 × 2 difficulty = −21.27 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Eagles by 6, total 43.5 · this 30–21 calls a bigger Eagles win (by 9) and more points (51).
How this was scored
score:
22-24
skill:
−21.27
they picked:
PHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
93.97
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
2
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
9
Think this is wrong?
Pittsburgh Steelers 27 — Falcons 17
“Pick: Steelers 27, Falcons 17”
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers 20–13called Steelers by 10 · won by 7
92.86Hit
92.86 − 82.06 naive = 10.8 × 2 difficulty = +21.59 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Steelers by 6.5, total 40.5 · this 27–17 calls a bigger Steelers win (by 10) and more points (44).
How this was scored
score:
13-20
skill:
21.59
they picked:
PIT
season:
2026
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
82.06
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
10
Think this is wrong?
Cincinnati Bengals 29 — Buccaneers 28
“Pick: Bengals 29, Buccaneers 28”
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals 33–27called Bengals by 1 · won by 6
88.1Hit
Closing line (Sep 13): Bengals by 3.5, total 50.5 · this 29–28 calls a closer game (Bengals by 1) and more points (57).
How this was scored
score:
27-33
skill:
7.3
they picked:
CIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
88.1
baseline:
84.44
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
1
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Chargers 31 — Cardinals 14
“Pick: Chargers 31, Cardinals 14”
Los Angeles Chargers
Cardinals 26–14called Chargers by 17 · lost by 12
38.1Miss
38.1 − 20.16 naive = 17.94 × 2 difficulty = +35.87 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Chargers by 8.5, total 47.5 · this 31–14 calls a bigger Chargers win (by 17) and fewer points (45).
How this was scored
score:
26-14
skill:
35.87
they picked:
LAC
season:
2026
accuracy:
38.1
baseline:
20.16
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
12
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
17
Think this is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens 34 — Colts 27
“Pick: Ravens 34, Colts 27”
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens 41–23called Ravens by 7 · won by 18
73.81Close
73.81 − 5.87 naive = 67.94 × 2 difficulty = +135.87 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Ravens by 3, total 48.5 · this 34–27 calls a bigger Ravens win (by 7) and more points (61).
How this was scored
score:
41-23
skill:
135.87
they picked:
BAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
73.81
baseline:
5.87
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
18
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
7
Think this is wrong?
Buffalo Bills 23 — Texans 20
“Pick: Bills 23, Texans 20”
Buffalo Bills
Bills 36–31called Bills by 3 · won by 5
95.24Hit
95.24 − 36.83 naive = 58.41 × 2 difficulty = +116.83 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5, total 44.5 · this 23–20 calls a bigger Bills win (by 3) and fewer points (43).
How this was scored
score:
36-31
skill:
116.83
they picked:
BUF
season:
2026
accuracy:
95.24
baseline:
36.83
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
Green Bay Packers 26 — Vikings 24
“Pick: Packers 26, Vikings 24”
Green Bay Packers
Vikings 39–22called Packers by 2 · lost by 17
14.29Miss
14.29 − 58.25 naive = −43.96 × 2 difficulty = −87.94 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Vikings by 1.5, total 46.5 · this 26–24 calls a Packers win (by 2; the line gave the Packers 47%) and more points (50).
How this was scored
score:
22-39
skill:
−87.94
they picked:
GB
season:
2026
accuracy:
14.29
baseline:
58.25
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
17
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
2
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams 28 — 49ers 27
“Pick: Rams 28, 49ers 27”
Los Angeles Rams
49ers 27–7called Rams by 1 · lost by 20
4.76Miss
4.76 − 0 naive = 4.76 × 2 difficulty = +9.52 skill
Closing line (Sep 10): Rams by 3.5, total 47.5 · this 28–27 calls a closer game (Rams by 1) and more points (55).
How this was scored
score:
27-7
skill:
9.52
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
4.76
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
20
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−8.5
predicted margin:
1
Think this is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks 26 — Patriots 14
“Pick: Seahawks 26, Patriots 14”
Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks 13–10called Seahawks by 12 · won by 3
78.57Close
78.57 − 100 naive = −21.43 × 2 difficulty = −42.86 skill
Closing line (Sep 9): Seahawks by 3, total 44.5 · this 26–14 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 12) and fewer points (40).
How this was scored
score:
10-13
skill:
−42.86
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
78.57
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
3
predicted margin:
12
Think this is wrong?