Steve Deace· Nov 4, 2024

On the eve of the election he said flatly that Trump would win the presidency, estimated a three-to-six-point Trump victory in Georgia based on early-voting data, and dismissed any chance of West Virginia going Democratic.

“I do think Trump is going to win.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 3 have settled, averaging 97.3 out of 100, against 58.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“I could give you all the the data and trends why I believe we're gonna win tomorrow. I do think Trump is going to win. I think we're gonna win tomorrow.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 4, 2024
“to me, that that still looks like a three to five six point victory in Georgia to me. ... I don't know how she's gonna win Georgia.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.9a naive guess scored 75.8+16.1 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-ga
election year:
2024
skill:
16.1
topic:
elections
what happened:
2.19
in their words:
a three to five six point victory in Georgia
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
91.9
baseline:
75.8
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
2.19
their party:
Republican
their range:
3,5
the naive guess said:
-0.23
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“I would not be concerned about West Virginia. There's no chance the state will swing blue.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.