Krystal Ball· Oct 28, 2024
Ball doubts Trump will win the national popular vote, and dismisses the idea that he can carry Virginia, New Mexico, New Jersey or Colorado, while calling the presidential race overall a coin flip.
“Do I think Trump's going to win the popular vote? Probably not.”
said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 5 have settled, averaging 80 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2024
“I mean, do I think Trump's going to win the popular vote? Probably not.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- Probably not
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2024
“at the rally last night, he said he thinks they're going to win Colorado. You are not gonna win Colorado.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-co
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Kamala Harris
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Colorado
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2024
“I saw people tweeting like, Oh, We're gonna win New Jersey, Like, no, you are not.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-nj
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Kamala Harris
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in New Jersey
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2024
“Is he going to win the state of Virginia this I would be willing to say absolutely not.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-va
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Kamala Harris
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Virginia
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2024
“Is he gonna win New Mexico? Also, there is zero indication he's going to win the state of New Mexico.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-nm
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Kamala Harris
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in New Mexico
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.