Robert GibbsNov 2, 2022
Gibbs calls Maggie Hassan the clear favorite in New Hampshire's Senate race and says Gretchen Whitmer wins Michigan's governor's race regardless of how close the margin ends up.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Hacks On TapHear the original
What Robert Gibbs said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromEven the New Hampshire senate race, while I I think Hasson is is the clear favorite.
- Where it was said
- Hacks On Tap
- The episode
- The Only Poll That Matters
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidNov 1, 2022
- Election DayNov 8, 2022
- GradedOct 10, 2026
- 1Hassan to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire“Even the New Hampshire senate race, while I I think Hasson is is the clear favorite.”
- 2Gretchen Whitmer to win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election“Either way, I think she's gonna win and, you're gonna hear more from her.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hassan to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire1 | Race Winners | Maggie Hassan won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Gretchen Whitmer to win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election2 | Race Winners | Gretchen Whitmer won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 2 calls · 2 hits · all settled | 100 | 100 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Hassan to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
What happenedMaggie Hassan woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.01difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-senate-nh
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- the clear favorite
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Maggie Hassan
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Maggie Hassan
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Gretchen Whitmer to win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election
What happenedGretchen Whitmer woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.01difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-governor-mi
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2022-governor
- who won:
- Gretchen Whitmer
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Gretchen Whitmer
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 100
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.