LaVar Arrington· Sep 4, 2025
Arrington picked division winners in both conferences, had Baltimore beating Buffalo to reach the Super Bowl and Philadelphia beating Green Bay in the NFC, with the Ravens winning it all.
“you have a Ravens Eagle Super Bowl and I have Baltimore actually winning the Super Bowl.”
said on air or in an interview · 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
19 checkable claims — 8 division winners, 6 playoff picks, 2 conference champions, 2 game outcome picks and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 19 have settled, averaging 31.6 out of 100, against 26.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
19 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia EaglesSep 4, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
“they advanced to the Super Bowl, and you have a Ravens Eagle Super Bowl”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Division WinnersHouston TexansSep 4, 2025
Houston Texans to win the division
“Cincinnati into AFC, Buffalo, Houston and the Chargers as divisional or conference the division champion”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersLos Angeles ChargersSep 4, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to win the division
“Cincinnati into AFC, Buffalo, Houston and the Chargers as divisional or conference the division champion”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 4, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
“On the NFC side, I have Philly, Tampa, Bay, Minnesota, and Arizona winning their divisions”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersCincinnati BengalsSep 4, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals to win the division
“I got Cincinnati into AFC, Buffalo, Houston and the Chargers as ... the division champion”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersMinnesota VikingsSep 4, 2025
Minnesota Vikings to win the division
“On the NFC side, I have Philly, Tampa, Bay, Minnesota, and Arizona winning their divisions”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Conference ChampionsBaltimore RavensSep 4, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl
“Baltimore will win to make it to the super Bowl”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Division WinnersPhiladelphia EaglesSep 4, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles to win the division
“On the NFC side, I have Philly, Tampa, Bay, Minnesota, and Arizona winning their divisions”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- yes
- Division WinnersBuffalo BillsSep 4, 2025
Buffalo Bills to win the division
“Cincinnati into AFC, Buffalo, Houston and the Chargers as divisional or conference the division champion”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersArizona CardinalsSep 4, 2025
Arizona Cardinals to win the division
“On the NFC side, I have Philly, Tampa, Bay, Minnesota, and Arizona winning their divisions”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- ARI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Playoff PicksBaltimore RavensSep 4, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“And I have Baltimore, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh as wildcard teams.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksPittsburgh SteelersSep 4, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs
“And I have Baltimore, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh as wildcard teams.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensSep 4, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to beat Buffalo
“Buffalo Will end up playing Baltimore and Baltimore will win to make it to the super Bowl.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 40-41
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksGreen Bay PackersSep 4, 2025
Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs
“I see Green Bay, Washington and the Rams being the wildcard teams”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- GB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksWashington CommandersSep 4, 2025
Washington Commanders to make the playoffs
“I see Green Bay, Washington and the Rams being the wildcard teams”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- WAS
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles RamsSep 4, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“I see Green Bay, Washington and the Rams being the wildcard teams”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia EaglesSep 4, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Green Bay
“the teams that will emerge from there will be Philly and I do believe Green Bay, but I believe that Philadelphia finds a way to win”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 10-7
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Super Bowl PicksBaltimore RavensSep 4, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl
“and I have Baltimore actually winning the Super Bowl”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 4, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs
“And I have Baltimore, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh as wildcard teams.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Chris BrockmanDivision Winners · Chicago BearsHit · 100Brockman called the Broncos-Packers game the best of the day, said Denver looks poised to lock up the AFC's No. 1 seed and reach the AFC Championship Game, predicted the Bears win the NFC North and the Eagles win their division (though he thinks they lose to a five seed from the NFC West), and said Philip Rivers will be in the NFL in 2026.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · New England PatriotsHit · 100Eisen said the Patriots are still likely to win the AFC East and won't be one-and-done, that the Chargers will end Dallas' season next week, that TreVeyon Henderson should out-snap Rhamondre Stevenson, that the NFC East race is over in Philadelphia's favor, and that the winner of the NFC West will be the NFC's No. 1 seed.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · New England PatriotsHit · 100Eisen previewed week 15 games, predicting Joe Burrow would play well in his first home start back against Baltimore, and speculated on a possible Colts-Steelers wild card matchup. He also asserted the Chiefs will not win their division for a tenth straight year, keeping the Patriots' record of 11 straight division titles safe.
- Chris BrockmanDivision Winners · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Brockman argued the Texans will reach the AFC Championship Game, declared the Chiefs dynasty over, said the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Lambeau Field, that Josh Allen is still the most dangerous QB and the Bills will win a playoff game (with the AFC East runner-up as the 5 seed winning in Pittsburgh or Baltimore), that Carolina will win the NFC South, that Baltimore finishes under .500 with Lamar no longer a top-five QB, that the Colts should trade for Mac Jones, and that Marcus Freeman will be in the NFL next year.