Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Daniela AltimariSep 19, 2024

Assessing Connecticut's 5th District, they said Harris at the top of the ticket hurts George Logan's chances because Harris will carry the district.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Inside Elections PodcastHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Kamala Harris wonWhat happenedcertified result
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Daniela Altimari said

when Biden was still in the race, I think Logan's chances looked a lot better than they than they do now with with Harris at the top of the ticket because she will win there
Our reading: Harris to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Connecticut
Where it was said
The Inside Elections Podcast
The episode
Episode 31: New Montana Poll, Rating Changes, Connecticut 5 w/ Daniela Altimari of Roll Call
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidSep 19, 2024
  2. Election DayNov 5, 2024
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Harris to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Connecticut

    What happenedKamala Harris woncertified result
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.06difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2024-president-ct
    election year:
    2024
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    fec-2024-president
    who won:
    Kamala Harris
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2024 U.S. presidential election in Connecticut
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Kamala Harris
    days before the vote when called:
    46
    difficulty:
    1.06
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

The race in this take

every call on each
Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.