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Sarah IsgurOct 23, 2026

Isgur says they believe Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will lose the Texas Senate race to Democrat James Talarico, pointing to weak polling for Governor Greg Abbott as the signal of a broader wave.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Left, Right & Center (KCRW)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
James Talarico wonWhat happenedcalled, not yet certified
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+102Skillafter difficulty

What Sarah Isgur said

So the reason I actually think Paxton's gonna lose is because of the Abbott polling.
Our reading: Tallarico to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
Where it was said
Left, Right & Center (KCRW)
The episode
Midterm Countdown: Voter Fraud Arrests & Senate Battlegrounds
The original
Hear the original
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Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 23
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Tallarico to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas

    What happenedJames Talarico woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.02difficulty+102skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-senate-tx
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    102
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    James Talarico
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    James Talarico
    days before the vote when called:
    11
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

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