Mike FanelliAug 14, 2026
Fanelli names six players they consider overpriced relative to their Sleeper redraft ADP for 2026: Jaxson Dart, De'Von Achane, Bucky Irving, Tetairoa McMillan, Luther Burden III and Oronde Gadsden II.
Published in writing · FantasyProsRead the original
What Mike Fanelli said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromLet's look at six players who are overpriced based on Sleeper ADP for redraft leagues .
- Where it was published
- FantasyPros
- The piece
- 6 Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid on Sleeper (2026)
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
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- 1Luther Burden III to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 41.1 | WR17)“Luther Burden III (CHI) – ADP 41.1 | WR17 The hype around Burden has gotten out of control.”
- 2De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 12.5 | RB5)“De'Von Achane (MIA) – ADP 12.5 | RB5 ... I won't draft him as a mid-range RB1 and would like to avoid picking Achane altogether with Malik Willis under center.”
- 3Tetairoa McMillan to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 37.3 | WR15)“While I like McMillan, he is overvalued as the WR15 in ADP.”
- 4Jaxson Dart to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 80.6 | QB7)“Jaxson Dart (NYG) – ADP 80.6 | QB7 ... Dart is overvalued at his current ADP.”
- 5Oronde Gadsden II to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 94.7 | TE9)“Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) – ADP 94.7 | TE9 ... he shouldn't get picked as anything more than a mid-range TE2.”
- 6Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 34.4 | RB17)“Bucky Irving (TB) – ADP 34.4 | RB17 ... Irving regressed last year and struggled to stay healthy ... showing their lack of trust in Irving as a featured running back.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 41.1 | WR17)1 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 12.5 | RB5)2 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Tetairoa McMillan to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 37.3 | WR15)3 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Jaxson Dart to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 80.6 | QB7)4 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Oronde Gadsden II to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 94.7 | TE9)5 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 34.4 | RB17)6 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 6 waiting | — | — | ||||
How each call scored
6 checkable claims — 6 fantasy bust calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Fantasy Bust CallsLuther Burden IIIChicago Bears
Luther Burden III to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 41.1 | WR17)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
2Fantasy Bust CallsDe'Von AchaneMiami Dolphins
De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 12.5 | RB5)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
3Fantasy Bust CallsTetairoa McMillanCarolina Panthers
Tetairoa McMillan to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 37.3 | WR15)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
4Fantasy Bust CallsJaxson DartNew York Giants
Jaxson Dart to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 80.6 | QB7)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Fantasy Bust CallsOronde Gadsden IILos Angeles Chargers
Oronde Gadsden II to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 94.7 | TE9)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Fantasy Bust CallsBucky IrvingTampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 34.4 | RB17)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picked the Giants to beat the Commanders at home in the Thursday night Week 10 game, 23-14, citing New York's dominant front seven containing Jayden Daniels.
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Derek Brown · Fantasy Bust Calls · Zay Flowers · Miss 0
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.Chris Welsh · Fantasy Bust Calls · Austin Ekeler · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Joe Pisapia · Fantasy Bust Calls · Rashee Rice · Miss 0
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.Pat Fitzmaurice · Fantasy Bust Calls · Breece Hall · Miss 0
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.