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Keith SanchezJun 2, 2022

Sanchez predicts the Cowboys take a slight step back to 9-8 in 2022 but still reach the playoffs as a wild card, win their wild-card game and lose in the divisional round, with Dak Prescott playing at a top-10 quarterback level.

Published in writing · The Draft NetworkRead the original

1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled
52.2Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
55A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 3Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Keith Sanchez said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
So, I believe that Dallas will make the playoffs as a wildcard team, win their play-off game and lose in the divisional round.
Keith Sanchez, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
The Draft Network
The piece
What Record Does 2022 Hold For Cowboys? - The Draft Network

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.

  1. SaidJun 2, 2022
  2. GradedAug 5, 2026
  1. 1Dak Prescott to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards“Dak Prescott plays at a top-10 quarterback level”
  2. 2Dallas Cowboys to finish with 9 wins“My Predictive Outcome: ... Record (9-8)”
  3. 3Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs“So, I believe that Dallas will make the playoffs as a wildcard team, win their play-off game and lose in the divisional round.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Dak Prescott to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards1Positional FinishesFinished #2016.670+33.33
Dallas Cowboys to finish with 9 wins2Season Win Totals124065−50
Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs3Playoff PicksMade the playoffs1001000
3 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled52.255

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 1 playoff pick, 1 positional finish and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 52.2 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

positional finish
10They said
20What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Positional FinishesDak PrescottDallas Cowboys

    Dak Prescott to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards

    What happenedFinished #20called #10 · by passing yards
    16.67Miss · naive 0
    16.67this call0a naive guess16.67better than naive2difficulty+33.33skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    33.33
    player:
    Dak Prescott
    season:
    2022
    zero credit this far off:
    12
    accuracy:
    16.67
    baseline:
    0
    position:
    QB
    ranked by:
    passing yards
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    7
    actual finish:
    20
    weeks left when called:
    18
    predicted finish:
    10
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Season Win TotalsDallas Cowboys

    Dallas Cowboys to finish with 9 wins

    What happened12called 9
    40Close · naive 65
    40this call65a naive guess−25worse than naive2difficulty−50skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    DAL
    naive:
    10.25
    skill:
    −50
    what happened:
    12
    season:
    2022
    zero credit this far off:
    5
    accuracy:
    40
    baseline:
    65
    they said:
    9
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  3. 3Playoff PicksDallas Cowboys

    Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs

    What happenedMade the playoffs
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    DAL
    skill:
    0
    season:
    2022
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive guess said:
    yes
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    made the playoffs:
    yes
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    52.2naive 55

Others on the same people

More positional finishes

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.