Ryan Fowler· Apr 29, 2023
Fowler ranks the top 10 quarterbacks eligible for the 2024 NFL Draft, with Caleb Williams first and expected to go No. 1 overall, and Drake Maye warranting a top-two pick. He also predicts Jordan Travis as a sneaky Heisman pick.
“He's expected to hear his name called first overall next spring.”
published in writing · The Draft Network · read the original (as archived May 14, 2023) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
3 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 97.9 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall picktop-two pick (picks 1–2)They said
3What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksDrake MayeApr 29, 2023
Drake Maye to be picked “top-two pick” (picks 1–2)
“has the arm strength, accuracy, IQ, and dual-threat talent to warrant a top-two pick”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2023
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- top-two pick (picks 1–2)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb WilliamsApr 29, 2023
Caleb Williams to be picked at number 1
“He's expected to hear his name called first overall next spring.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2023
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Top Player ListsApr 29, 2023
“2024 NFL Draft QB Rankings: 1. Caleb Williams (USC) ... 10. Spencer Rattler (South Carolina)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Drake MayeHit · 100Hurwitz gives his latest 53-man roster projection for the Patriots after the preseason opener, naming who makes the team at each position and slotting rookie Jam Miller as RB3, Karon Prunty as CB4 and Kindle Vildor as CB5.
- John MiddlekauffDraft Bust Calls · Caleb WilliamsMiss · 0Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.
- Pat FitzmauriceSleeper Calls · Drake MayeHit · 100Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.
- Chris WelshSleeper Calls · Drake MayeHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Andrew EricksonSleeper Calls · Drake MayeHit · 100Erickson's must-have targets round by round: Nico Collins in round one (1,500 receiving yards if healthy), Drake London as a top-five WR in round two, Omarion Hampton as the Chargers' bell cow in round three, Kenneth Walker as a top-five fantasy back in round four, plus Tetairoa McMillan, Jaylen Waddle, Ricky Pearsall, Jordan Mason, Tucker Kraft, Drake Maye and a set of late-round fliers.
- Seth WoolcockSleeper Calls · Drake MayeHit · 100Wilcock endorses all three value picks — McMillan, Tony Pollard and Drake May — as players worth more than their current draft cost.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.