Isaac Saul· Nov 1, 2024

Recapping and restating his final 2024 call, Saul predicts Trump wins the presidency while Harris carries Pennsylvania, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans ending up with 53 Senate seats. He insists the race is a coin flip but still lands on Trump.

“Number three, I think Trump is going to win.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Tangle (podcast) · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 2 race winners, 1 chamber control and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 4 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 30 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“Number three, I think Trump is going to win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 1, 2024
“and that Republicans would come away with 53 seats in the Senate”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 20+80 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
53
skill:
80
topic:
elections
what happened:
53
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
what they counted:
total_seats
accuracy:
100
baseline:
20
they said:
53
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
seats before:
49
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
49
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 1, 2024
“I also argued that Trump had a path to winning in Michigan, that Democrats would win the House”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2024
skill:
-100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“one of my headline predictions was that Vice President Kamala Harris would win Pennsylvania but lose the election”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.