Manti Te'o· Sep 3, 2025
Te'o picks Lamar Jackson for a third MVP, Jalen Carter for Defensive Player of the Year, the Broncos to win the AFC West, and has the 49ers, Steelers, Buccaneers and Ravens in the playoffs.
“So the one that I'm most proud of of sticking to my guns, would have to be the Denver Broncos. As if AFC West champions”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
8 checkable claims — 4 playoff picks, 2 award picks, 1 depth chart call and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 49 out of 100, against 24 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersDenver BroncosSep 3, 2025
Denver Broncos to win the division
“the Denver Broncos. As if AFC West champions first time in ten years.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- yes
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 3, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“we all three have the Bucks and the Ravens in the playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksBaltimore RavensSep 3, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“we all three have the Bucks and the Ravens in the playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksLamar JacksonBaltimore RavensSep 3, 2025
Lamar Jackson to win MVP
“Laman Jackson is going to win his third”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Russell Wilson to be 1st on the depth chart
“I would say if they're in the playoff. I think that Russell would be starting.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Russell Wilson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksJalen CarterPhiladelphia EaglesSep 3, 2025
Jalen Carter to win Defensive Player of the Year
“Oh, I have Jalen Carter... Who will win the Defensive Player of the Year”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Pat Surtain II, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jalen Carter
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Myles Garrett
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksSan Francisco 49ersSep 3, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs
“the San Francisco forty nine ers pick in the wild card round at the NFC Division, I'm really really proud of”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SF
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksPittsburgh SteelersSep 3, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs
“I held the Patriots helmet up with the Steelers helmet and I chose the Steelers”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Matt HarmonScore Predictions · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Marcus RayScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19Marcus predicted a 30-13 Buccaneers win over Cleveland with three touchdowns and three field goals, and picked the Raiders to beat a Jim Harbaugh team to start 2-0.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Eisen agreed the Bears are a team of destiny who will win the NFC, insisted the Packers will make the playoffs and won't lose at home to the Ravens, said the Steelers should make the playoffs, and endorsed the view that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Brockman argued the Texans will reach the AFC Championship Game, declared the Chiefs dynasty over, said the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Lambeau Field, that Josh Allen is still the most dangerous QB and the Bills will win a playoff game (with the AFC East runner-up as the 5 seed winning in Pittsburgh or Baltimore), that Carolina will win the NFC South, that Baltimore finishes under .500 with Lamar no longer a top-five QB, that the Colts should trade for Mac Jones, and that Marcus Freeman will be in the NFL next year.