Manti Te'o#65 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 3, 2025
Te'o picks Lamar Jackson for a third MVP, Jalen Carter for Defensive Player of the Year, the Broncos to win the AFC West, and has the 49ers, Steelers, Buccaneers and Ravens in the playoffs.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
4 of 8calls landed4 hits · 4 misses · all settled
49Average accuracyout of 100, across 8 calls
24A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
8 of 8Settlednone still waiting
What Manti Te'o said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromSo the one that I'm most proud of of sticking to my guns, would have to be the Denver Broncos. As if AFC West champions
- Where it was said
- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- GMFB Wednesday Hour 2: Playoff Teams Reactions, Brandon Graham, and Defensive POY Predictions!
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidSep 3, 2025
- GradedAug 7–17, 2026
- 1Denver Broncos to win the division“the Denver Broncos. As if AFC West champions first time in ten years.”
- 2Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs“we all three have the Bucks and the Ravens in the playoffs”
- 3Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs“we all three have the Bucks and the Ravens in the playoffs”
- 4Lamar Jackson to win MVP“Laman Jackson is going to win his third”
- 5Russell Wilson to be 1st on the depth chart“I would say if they're in the playoff. I think that Russell would be starting.”
- 6Jalen Carter to win Defensive Player of the Year“Oh, I have Jalen Carter... Who will win the Defensive Player of the Year”
- 7San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs“the San Francisco forty nine ers pick in the wild card round at the NFC Division, I'm really really proud of”
- 8Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs“I held the Patriots helmet up with the Steelers helmet and I chose the Steelers”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs2 | Playoff Picks | Missed the playoffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs3 | Playoff Picks | Missed the playoffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lamar Jackson to win MVP4 | Award Picks | Matthew Stafford won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Russell Wilson to be 1st on the depth chart5 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 2 | 91.67 | 91.67 | 0 | |
| Jalen Carter to win Defensive Player of the Year6 | Award Picks | Myles Garrett won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs7 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs8 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 8 calls · 4 hits · 4 misses · all settled | 49 | 24 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive8 checkable claims — 4 playoff picks, 2 award picks, 1 depth chart call and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 49 out of 100, against 24 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Division WinnersDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos to win the division
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- yes
2Playoff PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
3Playoff PicksBaltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Award PicksLamar JacksonBaltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Lamar Jackson0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
5Depth Chart CallsRussell WilsonNew York Giants
Russell Wilson to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 2called No. 1 · by passing yards91.67Hit · naive 91.6791.67this call−91.67a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Russell Wilson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
6Award PicksJalen CarterPhiladelphia Eagles
Jalen Carter to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedMyles Garrett woncalled Jalen Carter0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Pat Surtain II, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jalen Carter
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Myles Garrett
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
7Playoff PicksSan Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- SF
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
8Playoff PicksPittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 8 settled calls, each counted once
49naive 24
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ross Jackson · Playoff Picks · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Minnesota Vikings · Miss 0
Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Carolina Panthers · Hit 100
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Green Bay Packers · Hit 100
Eisen agreed the Bears are a team of destiny who will win the NFC, insisted the Packers will make the playoffs and won't lose at home to the Ravens, said the Steelers should make the playoffs, and endorsed the view that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Buffalo Bills · Hit 100
Brockman argued the Texans will reach the AFC Championship Game, declared the Chiefs dynasty over, said the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Lambeau Field, that Josh Allen is still the most dangerous QB and the Bills will win a playoff game (with the AFC East runner-up as the 5 seed winning in Pittsburgh or Baltimore), that Carolina will win the NFC South, that Baltimore finishes under .500 with Lamar no longer a top-five QB, that the Colts should trade for Mac Jones, and that Marcus Freeman will be in the NFL next year.