Harrison Lavelle· Nov 1, 2024

Walking through early-vote data in five states, he reports Split Ticket's model ratings: Florida Likely Republican with Trump's margin expanding over 2020, North Carolina and Arizona both Leans Republican (Arizona a flip from 2020), while Pennsylvania and Nevada are left as pure tossups.

“Split Ticket currently rates the state Likely Republican in our model.”

published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“Split Ticket currently rates the state Likely Republican in our model.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Likely Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“Split Ticket has the state rated as Leans Republican , a flip from 2020”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-az
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“becoming the third of the swing states to enter the Leans Republican column this cycle”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nc
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Leans Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 1, 2024
“Donald Trump carried the state by just 3.5 points in 2020. This year, our model projects that Republicans will expand their margin in Florida relative to 2020.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.