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2026 U.S. House election in Montana's district 1

House · November 3, 2026 · called

The ballot

The race is called; the shares are final once the result is certified.

Sam Forstag by — in the general · held by the Republican party going in · flipped · source: wikipedia-2026

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The polls · VoteHub · 3 polls in 21 days · through October 21, 2026

  • Sam Forstag49.0%
  • Aaron Flint41.0%
  • Nick Sheedy4.0%

Sam Forstag by 8.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 6 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Montana State University Billings2026-10-05 – 2026-10-21287 ASam Forstag 49% · Aaron Flint 32% · Nick Sheedy 4%
Emerson College · for Poll Vault2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14329 LVSam Forstag 50% · Aaron Flint 46%
Public Policy Polling (DEM) · for House Majority PAC2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14541 LVSam Forstag 48% · Aaron Flint 45%
American Pulse Research & Polling · for KULR-TV2026-09-19 – 2026-09-24314 LVAaron Flint 45.9% · Sam Forstag 45.4% · Nick Sheedy 5.4%
Upswing Research (DEM) · for 314 Action2026-04-30 – 2026-05-05401 LVAaron Flint 47% · Matt Rains 43%
Upswing Research (DEM) · for 314 Action2026-04-30 – 2026-05-05401 LVAaron Flint 48% · Sam Forstag 43%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Oct 4Oct 11Oct 18Oct 25Nov 1Nov 8
Aaron Flint 2· 2 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (2)

Newest first. A winner call is graded once the race is called and confirmed; a margin or share once the result is certified.

More 2026 races

Every 2026 race