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2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana

Senate · November 3, 2026 · called

The ballot

The race is called; the shares are final once the result is certified.

Kurt Alme by — in the general · held by the Republican party going in · source: wikipedia-2026

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · November 3, 2026

  • Kurt Alme91¢
  • Independent9¢
  • Alani Bankhead0¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. This is the last price we read before the polls closed; prices taken after the vote are not shown. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any market or sportsbook. Not betting or financial advice.

The polls · VoteHub · 3 polls in 21 days · through October 23, 2026

  • Kurt Alme38.0%
  • Seth Bodnar27.0%
  • Alani Bankhead21.7%
  • Kyle Austin2.3%

Kurt Alme by 11.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Concord Public Opinion Partners (DEM) · for Democrats for Education Reform2026-10-22 – 2026-10-23410 LVSeth Bodnar 39% · Kurt Alme 38% · Alani Bankhead 10% · Kyle Austin 2%
Montana State University Billings2026-10-05 – 2026-10-21720 AKurt Alme 30% · Alani Bankhead 26% · Seth Bodnar 21% · Kyle Austin 3%
Quantus Insights2026-10-15 – 2026-10-18686 LVKurt Alme 46% · Alani Bankhead 29% · Seth Bodnar 21% · Kyle Austin 2%
American Pulse Research & Polling · for KULR-TV2026-09-19 – 2026-09-24604 LVKurt Alme 45% · Seth Bodnar 26% · Alani Bankhead 19%
Quantus Insights2026-09-14 – 2026-09-15625 LVKurt Alme 44% · Seth Bodnar 24% · Alani Bankhead 23%
Hart Research Associates · for Forward Montana2026-08-01 – 2026-08-04800 LVKurt Alme 45% · Seth Bodnar 30% · Alani Bankhead 15% · Kyle Austin 6%
Tavern Research2026-07-23 – 2026-07-27517 LVKurt Alme 50% · Seth Bodnar 45% · Kyle Austin 5%
Tavern Research2026-07-23 – 2026-07-27517 LVKurt Alme 49% · Seth Bodnar 25% · Alani Bankhead 24% · Kyle Austin 2%
Tavern Research2026-07-23 – 2026-07-27517 LVKurt Alme 49% · Seth Bodnar 27% · Alani Bankhead 22%
Tavern Research2026-07-23 – 2026-07-27517 LVKurt Alme 59% · Alani Bankhead 41%
Tavern Research2026-07-23 – 2026-07-27517 LVKurt Alme 51% · Seth Bodnar 49%
Tavern Research2026-07-23 – 2026-07-27517 LVKurt Alme 56% · Alani Bankhead 36% · Kyle Austin 8%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Oct 25Nov 1Nov 8
Kurt Alme 3· 3 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (3)

Newest first. A winner call is graded once the race is called and confirmed; a margin or share once the result is certified.

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Every 2026 race