Dane StrotherOct 28, 2026

Strother, a Democratic strategist appearing as an analyst, said Montana's Senate race is already effectively decided for the Republicans, that the Republican will win Montana's 1st congressional district because the Democratic candidate failed to answer attacks, and that Democrats taking the House is essentially settled.

Said on air, transcribed by us · RealClearPolitics PodcastHear the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 miss · all settled

66.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

33.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

2Races calledevery call on each below

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Dane Strother said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

Senate race is over.

Dane Strother, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: RealClearPolitics Podcast
The episode: The Results of the Israeli Elections
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 28
Election DayNov 3
GradedNov 10

1the Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana“I'm not sure why they're here because the Republicans have won the senate race here... So that's it. Senate race is over.”
2the Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Montana's district 1“There's one competitive congressional race here. It's Montana one... And, Flint's gonna win this thing. I think the Republicans gonna win this thing because Forstag, the pretty boy democrat... made the mistake we learned with Dukakis.”
3Control of Congress“I think it's fair to say the house is done... everything I'm reading and seeing is, you know, that's pretty much done.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
the Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana¹	Race Winners	Kurt Alme won	100	100	0
the Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Montana's district 1²	Race Winners	Sam Forstag won	0	0	0
“I think it's fair to say the house is done... everything I'm…”³	Control of Congress	—	100	0	+101
3 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · all settled			66.7	33.3

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Race Winners
the Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana
What happenedKurt Alme woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.01difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-mt
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Kurt Alme
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kurt Alme
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
2Race Winners
the Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Montana's district 1
What happenedSam Forstag woncalled Aaron Flint
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.01difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-house-mt-01
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Sam Forstag
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. House election in Montana's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Aaron Flint
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
3Control of Congress
“I think it's fair to say the house is done... everything I'm reading and seeing is, you know, that's pretty much done.”
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.01difficulty+101skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2026
skill:
101
topic:
elections
result from:
wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
chamber:
2026-house
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
66.7naive 33.3

The races in this take

every call on each

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.