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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3526–3550 of 4,387
Mason Graham to be picked at number 11
11. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Selection: IDL Mason Graham, Michigan
Jalon Walker to be picked at number 8
8. CAROLINA PANTHERS Selection: EDGE Jalon Walker, Georgia
Tetairoa McMillan to be picked at number 10
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (Via Trade With Bears) Selection: WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
Kelvin Banks Jr. to be picked at number 6
6. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS Selection: OT Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas
Josh Simmons to be picked at number 16
16. ARIZONA CARDINALS Selection: OT Josh Simmons, Ohio State
Colston Loveland to be picked at number 26
26. LOS ANGELES RAMS Selection: TE Colston Loveland, Michigan
Walter Nolen to be picked at number 15
15. ATLANTA FALCONS Selection: IDL Walter Nolen, Mississippi
Armand Membou to be picked at number 7
7. NEW YORK JETS Selection: OT Armand Membou, Missouri
Grey Zabel to be picked at number 18
18. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Selection: IOL Grey Zabel, North Dakota State
Matthew Golden to be picked at number 12
12. DALLAS COWBOYS Selection: WR Matthew Golden, Texas
Derrick Harmon to be picked at number 30
30. BUFFALO BILLS Selection: IDL Derrick Harmon, Oregon
Tyler Booker to be picked at number 25
25. HOUSTON TEXANS Selection: IOL Tyler Booker, Alabama
Abdul Carter to be picked at number 3
3. NEW YORK GIANTS Selection: EDGE Abdul Carter, Penn State
Jihaad Campbell to be picked at number 19
19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Selection: LB Jihaad Campbell, Alabama
Jaxson Dart to be picked at number 24
24.New York Giants (Via Trade) Selection: QB Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Jahdae Barron to be picked at number 13
13. MIAMI DOLPHINS Selection: CB Jahdae Barron, Texas
Shemar Stewart to be picked at number 23
23. GREEN BAY PACKERS Selection: EDGE Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M
Will Campbell to be picked at number 4
4. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Selection: OL Will Campbell, LSU
Kenneth Grant to be picked at number 22
22. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS Selection: IDL Kenneth Grant, Michigan
Ashton Jeanty to be picked at number 5
5. Chicago Bears (Via Trade With Jaguars) Selection: RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
1. TENNESSEE TITANS Selection: QB Cam Ward, Miami
Armand Membou to be picked at number 4
a note is made, but the New England Patriots will select them on Membo.
Josh Simmons to be picked at number 26
They are taking Josh Simmons. If they're there, we go because Rob Havenstein is coming off a double shoulder clean out
Mason Taylor to be picked at number 32
Oh, let's just put three tight ends in the first round and what probably why not?... Thirty second pick Mason Taylor.
Maxwell Hairston to be picked at number 23
Let's give the Packers Maxwell Harston.
