David Nir#17 of 21 election pundits · Sep 19, 2024
Writing with co-author Jeff Singer, they expect Montana's Republican governor Greg Gianforte to win reelection easily, and says New Jersey Democrat Nellie Pou is on track to win a House seat.
Published in writing · The Downballot (newsletter)Read the original
What David Nir said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromWhile Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte should have no trouble securing a second term...
- Where it was published
- The Downballot (newsletter)
- The piece
- Morning Digest: Why Democrats want to break up GOP supermajorities—and win one of their own
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 19, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
- 1Nellie Pou to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 9“A fourth Democratic woman, state Sen. Nellie Pou , is also poised to join the next Congress.”
- 2Greg Gianforte to win the 2024 Montana gubernatorial election“While Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte should have no trouble securing a second term, several unusual Montana laws mean that the historic supermajority his party gained in 2022 is in real danger this cycle.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nellie Pou to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 91 | Race Winners | Nellie Pou won | 100 | 50 | +53 | |
| Greg Gianforte to win the 2024 Montana gubernatorial election2 | Race Winners | Greg Gianforte won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 2 calls · 2 hits · all settled | 100 | 75 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Nellie Pou to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 9
What happenedNellie Pou woncertified result100Hit · naive 50100this call−50a naive guess=50better than naive×1.06difficulty=+53skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-nj-09
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 53
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Nellie Pou
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 9
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Nellie Pou
- days before the vote when called:
- 46
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Greg Gianforte to win the 2024 Montana gubernatorial election
What happenedGreg Gianforte woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.06difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-governor-mt
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-governor
- who won:
- Greg Gianforte
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 Montana gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Greg Gianforte
- days before the vote when called:
- 46
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 75
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.