Kirk Bado· Oct 23, 2024
Asked to pick among four scenarios, Bado said the most likely outcome is a narrow Trump victory with Republicans flipping the Senate — including Mike Rogers winning Michigan's open Senate seat — while Democrats take the House.
“I think that is probably, as we sit here right now, fifteen days out, the most likely scenario that it is a narrow, narrow, narrow Trump win”
said on air, transcribed by us · Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 2 chamber control and 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 4 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Chamber ControlOct 23, 2024
“And because the house will be decided predominantly in blue states and districts that president Biden won, The Democrats win the house.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- -102
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2024-house
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- they said:
- Democratic
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“He he wins the White House, Republicans flip the senate... I think that is probably, as we sit here right now, fifteen days out, the most likely scenario that it is a narrow, narrow, narrow Trump win”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Chamber ControlOct 23, 2024
“He he wins the White House, Republicans flip the senate”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“They also pick up maybe the Michigan senate seat Okay. As well. It's a narrow gap. Mike Mike Rogers wins the open seat there.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-senate-mi
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- -102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Elissa Slotkin
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Mike Rogers
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More chamber control
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonChamber ControlHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Carl CannonChamber ControlHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Sam WangChamber ControlMiss · 0Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber.
- Henry OlsenChamber ControlHit · 100Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
- David PakmanChamber ControlHit · 100Reviewing the final 2024 forecasts, Pakman said the Senate outcome was essentially settled and stated his own expectation that Republicans would win control of the chamber.
- Erick-Woods EricksonChamber ControlHit · 100He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats.