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Jake ArthurOct 17, 2026

Arthur predicts the Colts blow out the winless Titans at home for their first lopsided win of the season, 34-16, with Tennessee managing a touchdown and a few field goals.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Colts (podcast)Hear the original

21Miss · out of 100
Titans 26–20What happenedcalled Colts by 18 · lost by 6
35.71A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
21.43This callout of 100
−24.57Skillafter difficulty

What Jake Arthur said

I have the Colts winning this one, and I do have them getting their first lopsided victory of the year, 34 to 16.
Our reading: Indianapolis Colts 34 — Titans 16
Where it was said
Locked On Colts (podcast)
The episode
PREDICTION: Indianapolis Colts MUST BLAST Spiraling Tennessee Titans At Home
The original
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  1. SaidOct 17
  2. PlayedOct 18
  3. GradedOct 18

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 21.4 out of 100, against 35.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsIndianapolis Colts

    Indianapolis Colts 34 — Titans 16

    What happenedTitans 26–20called Colts by 18 · lost by 6
    21.43Miss · naive 35.71
    21.43this call35.71a naive guess−14.28worse than naive1.72difficulty−24.57skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Colts by 6.5, total 43.5 · this 34–16 calls a bigger Colts win (by 18) and more points (50).

    How this was scored
    score:
    26-20
    skill:
    −24.57
    they picked:
    IND
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    21.43
    baseline:
    35.71
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    13
    naive home margin:
    0
    predicted margin:
    18
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