Gavin WrayOct 16, 2026
A listener writing in argues that Texas polling showing Talarico at 47.6 and Paxton at 44.7 actually points to a Paxton victory, because the undecided voters will break Republican.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The David Pakman ShowHear the original
0Miss · out of 100
James Talarico wonWhat happenedcalled Ken Paxton
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty
What Gavin Wray said
Tallerico, 47.6, and Paxton, 44.7, is a win for Paxton, my friend.
- Where it was said
- The David Pakman Show
- The episode
- Republican melts down at debate as White House dodges $5000 question
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 16
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Paxton to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
What happenedJames Talarico woncalled Ken Paxton0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.02difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-senate-tx
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- James Talarico
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ken Paxton
- days before the vote when called:
- 17
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.