Jason McIntyre#46 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 16, 2026

Filling in for Colin Cowherd, McIntyre picks the Bills to beat the Broncos in Denver despite reservations, says Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the league but that the MVP will go to Matthew Stafford or Drake Maye, and touts Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a top-two receiver who could win Offensive Player of the Year.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 6calls landed2 hits · 4 misses · all settled

36.1Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls

29.2A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

6 of 6Settlednone still waiting

#46Jason McIntyre’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jason McIntyre said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I'm actually with her, but I don't feel great about it.

Jason McIntyre, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
The episode: THE HERD - Hour 1 - Sam Darnold is under pressure, Super Bowl or bust for Josh Allen, thoughts on the Packers-Bears rivalry
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJan 16
GradedAug 7

1Jaxon Smith-Njigba to finish top 2 at his position, by passing yards“Jsn's their number one, and he's like a top two receiver in the league.”
2Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards“I do believe he's the best quarterback in the league.”
3Buffalo Bills to beat Denver“Yes, all right, I'm actually with her, but I don't feel great about it. (following Rachel Nichols saying "I'm going Bills in this one")”
4Matthew Stafford to win MVP“Obviously, he's not going to win the MVP. That'll be Stafford or Drake May.”
5Drake Maye to win MVP“Obviously, he's not going to win the MVP. That'll be Stafford or Drake May.”
6Jaxon Smith-Njigba to win Offensive Player of the Year“He might win off it'sive player of the year.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to finish top 2 at his position, by passing yards¹	Positional Finishes	Finished #99	0	0	0
Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards²	Positional Finishes	Finished #11	16.67	75	−58.33
Buffalo Bills to beat Denver³	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−100
Matthew Stafford to win MVP⁴	Award Picks	Matthew Stafford won	100	0	+100
Drake Maye to win MVP⁵	Award Picks	Matthew Stafford won	0	0	0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to win Offensive Player of the Year⁶	Award Picks	Jaxon Smith-Njigba won	100	0	+100
6 calls · 2 hits · 4 misses · all settled			36.1	29.2

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 3 award picks, 2 positional finishes and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 36.1 out of 100, against 29.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

positional finish

2They said

99What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

1Positional Finishes Jaxon Smith-Njigba Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to finish top 2 at his position, by passing yards
What happenedFinished #99called #2 · by passing yards
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
WR
ranked by:
passing yards
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
1
actual finish:
99
weeks left when called:
0
predicted finish:
2
Think this is wrong?
2Positional Finishes Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards
What happenedFinished #11called #1 · by passing yards
16.67Miss · naive 75
16.67this call75a naive guess−58.33worse than naive1difficulty−58.33skill
How this was scored
skill:
−58.33
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
16.67
baseline:
75
position:
QB
ranked by:
passing yards
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
14
actual finish:
11
weeks left when called:
0
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Denver
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%.
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
30-33
skill:
−100
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DEN
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
4Award Picks Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford won
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
100
player:
Matthew Stafford
season:
2025
who won:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
5Award Picks Drake Maye
Drake Maye to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Drake Maye
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Drake Maye
season:
2025
who won:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
6Award Picks Jaxon Smith-Njigba Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to win Offensive Player of the Year
What happenedJaxon Smith-Njigba won
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Saquon Barkley, who won it the year before
skill:
100
player:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
season:
2025
who won:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
36.1naive 29.2