Ben KraussJul 20, 2024
Krauss argues Trump's campaign money is wasted because they are already set to carry the battleground states by a margin larger than advertising could affect; they also describe Biden's 2024 campaign as doomed.
Published in writing · Slow BoringRead the original
100Hit · out of 100
Donald Trump wonWhat happenedcertified result
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+115Skillafter difficulty
What Ben Krauss said
But the polls show that he’s going to win those states by a margin that is outside the reach of even the best performing ads.
- Where it was published
- Slow Boring
- The piece
- The most money goes where it matters the least
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJul 20, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election
What happenedDonald Trump woncertified result100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.15difficulty=+115skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 115
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 107
- difficulty:
- 1.15
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.