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Carter Bahns#18 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 23, 2026

Bahns argues the Bengals are now a complete, top-tier team whose defensive additions can carry them back to the Super Bowl, while the Chargers' season may already be lost with road games at Buffalo and Seattle looking unwinnable. They also see the Saints as division favorites, picks Jacksonville over New England and expects the Eagles to reach 3-0 against a Bears team likely without Caleb Williams.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

3 of 4calls landed3 hits · 1 miss · 3 waiting
75Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
100A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#18Carter Bahns’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Carter Bahns said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
The defensive personnel changes are difference makers -- ones that can help the Bengals get back to the Super Bowl.
Carter Bahns, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Super Bowl stock report for Week 3: Bengals are total package, Chargers' season over before it started
The original
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  1. SaidSep 23
  2. PlayedSep 27–Oct 4
  3. GradedSep 28–Oct 5
  1. 1Seattle Seahawks to beat Chargers“the Chargers have to right their wrongs on the road against the Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks. That feels unachievable.”
  2. 2Philadelphia Eagles to beat Chicago Bears“That is an unenviable matchup for a third-string quarterback and a prime spot for the Eagles to improve to 3-0.”
  3. 3Jacksonville Jaguars to beat New England Patriots“The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost consecutive games just once since 2024 and could put up a number New England cannot match in this contest between 1-1 squads.”
  4. 4Buffalo Bills to beat Chargers“in order to salvage the first month of the campaign, the Chargers have to right their wrongs on the road against the Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks. That feels unachievable.”
  5. 5New Orleans Saints to win the division“The schedule ahead is favorable, and if the Saints take advantage, the division should be theirs to lose.”
  6. 6Availability Calls“Caleb Williams is likely out with a hamstring issue (Week 3, Monday Night Football vs. Eagles)”
  7. 7Cincinnati Bengals to reach the Super Bowl“The defensive personnel changes are difference makers -- ones that can help the Bengals get back to the Super Bowl.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Seattle Seahawks to beat Chargers1Game Outcome PicksSeahawks 30–231001000
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Chicago Bears2Game Outcome PicksBears 27–70100−189
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat New England Patriots3Game Outcome PicksJaguars 35–61001000
Buffalo Bills to beat Chargers4Game Outcome PicksBills 24–161001000
New Orleans Saints to win the division5Division Winners————
“Caleb Williams is likely out with a hamstring issue (Week 3,…”6Availability Calls————
Cincinnati Bengals to reach the Super Bowl7Conference Champions————
7 calls · 3 hits · 1 miss · 3 waiting75100

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

7 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 1 availability call, 1 conference champion and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

4 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 75 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks to beat Chargers

    What happenedSeahawks 30–23Chargers at Seahawks
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    23-30
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles to beat Chicago Bears

    What happenedBears 27–7Eagles at Bears
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill

    Closing line (Sep 28): Eagles by 3.5 · favorite pick, Eagles 64%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    CHI
    score:
    7-27
    skill:
    −189
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars to beat New England Patriots

    What happenedJaguars 35–6Patriots at Jaguars
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Jaguars by 3 · favorite pick, Jaguars 59%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    JAX
    score:
    6-35
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    JAX
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Chargers

    What happenedBills 24–16Chargers at Bills
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Bills by 7 · favorite pick, Bills about 3 in 4 (73%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    16-24
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    BUF
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Division WinnersNew Orleans Saints

    New Orleans Saints to win the division

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Availability CallsCaleb WilliamsChicago Bears

    “Caleb Williams is likely out with a hamstring issue (Week 3, Monday Night Football vs. Eagles)”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  7. 7Conference ChampionsCincinnati Bengals

    Cincinnati Bengals to reach the Super Bowl

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  8. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once

    75naive 100

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

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