Daniel WadeApr 13, 2026
In a trade-back mock draft, Wade has the Chargers deal pick 22 to Miami and select edge rusher Cassius Howell at 30, guard Keelan Rutledge at 55, cornerback Malik Muhammad at 86, wide receiver Brennan Thompson at 87, linebacker Keyshawn Elliott at 123, and offensive tackle Travis Burke at 151.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Chargers (podcast)Hear the original
0 of 8calls landed3 close calls · 5 misses · all settled
33.5Average accuracyout of 100, across 8 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
8 of 8Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Daniel Wade said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromAnd with pick 30, we ended up going with an edge rusher we haven't talked about yet. Cassius Howell, the explosive Texas a and m edge rusher.
- Where it was said
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)
- The episode
- MUST WIN: Complete Chargers Mock Draft Trading Back in Round One and Landing Players to Win NOW
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidApr 13
- GradedAug 14
- 1Keylan Rutledge to be picked at number 55“But round two, pick 55 is a guy that we've talked about before... One of my favorite players in the draft, Georgia Tech guard, Keelan Rutledge”
- 2Cashius Howell to be picked at number 30“And with pick 30, we ended up going with an edge rusher we haven't talked about yet. Cassius Howell, the explosive Texas a and m edge rusher.”
- 3Malik Muhammad to be picked at number 86“Now at pick 86 for the Chargers... We ended up going with cornerback, and then we ended up going with Malik Muhammad, the cornerback from Texas”
- 4Keylan Rutledge to be picked “second round pick” (picks 33–64)“it's the guy that was a a third round pick at one point. Now will likely be a second round pick”
- 5Travis Burke to be picked at number 151“But round five, pick one fifty one... I ended up going with the swing tackle... with Travis Burke, the Memphis OT”
- 6Brenen Thompson to be picked at number 87“we have the Dolphins eighty seventh overall pick in the third round... the guy I ended up landing on was Brennan Thompson. And this is a wide receiver from Mississippi State.”
- 7Jeremiah Smith to be picked “top five pick” (picks 1–5)“the one he was playing against Jeremiah Smith who was, you know, probably gonna be a top five pick next season”
- 8Keyshaun Elliott to be picked at number 123“where I ended up going in round four with the chargers' hundred and twenty third pick was Arizona State linebacker key, Keyshawn Elliott”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keylan Rutledge to be picked at number 551 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 26 | 28.47 | 50 | +32.86 | |
| Cashius Howell to be picked at number 302 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 41 | 62.09 | 50 | +32.86 | |
| Malik Muhammad to be picked at number 863 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 124 | 19.28 | 50 | +32.86 | |
| Keylan Rutledge to be picked “second round pick” (picks 33–64)4 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 26 | 73.84 | 50 | +32.86 | |
| Travis Burke to be picked at number 1515 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 117 | 22.93 | 50 | +32.86 | |
| Brenen Thompson to be picked at number 876 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 105 | 45.85 | 50 | +32.86 | |
| Jeremiah Smith to be picked “top five pick” (picks 1–5)7 | Mock Draft Picks | Went undrafted | 0 | 50 | +32.86 | |
| Keyshaun Elliott to be picked at number 1238 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 166 | 15.52 | 50 | +32.86 | |
| 8 calls · 3 close calls · 5 misses · all settled | 33.5 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive8 checkable claims — 8 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 33.5 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pick55They said
26What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksKeylan RutledgeLos Angeles Chargers
Keylan Rutledge to be picked at number 55
What happenedWent 26mocked at 5528.47Miss · naive 5082.86this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=32.86better than naive×1difficulty=+32.86skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 32.86
- player:
- Keylan Rutledge
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 28.47
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 28.47
- predicted pick:
- 55
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 82.86
2Mock Draft PicksCashius HowellLos Angeles Chargers
Cashius Howell to be picked at number 30
What happenedWent 41mocked at 3062.09Close · naive 5082.86this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=32.86better than naive×1difficulty=+32.86skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 32.86
- player:
- Cashius Howell
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 62.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 41
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 62.09
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 82.86
3Mock Draft PicksMalik MuhammadLos Angeles Chargers
Malik Muhammad to be picked at number 86
What happenedWent 124mocked at 8619.28Miss · naive 5082.86this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=32.86better than naive×1difficulty=+32.86skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 32.86
- player:
- Malik Muhammad
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 19.28
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 124
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 19.28
- predicted pick:
- 86
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 82.86
4Mock Draft PicksKeylan Rutledge
Keylan Rutledge to be picked “second round pick” (picks 33–64)
What happenedWent 2673.84Close · naive 5082.86this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=32.86better than naive×1difficulty=+32.86skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 32.86
- player:
- Keylan Rutledge
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- second round pick (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 82.86
5Mock Draft PicksTravis BurkeLos Angeles Chargers
Travis Burke to be picked at number 151
What happenedWent 117mocked at 15122.93Miss · naive 5082.86this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=32.86better than naive×1difficulty=+32.86skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 32.86
- player:
- Travis Burke
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 22.93
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 117
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 22.93
- predicted pick:
- 151
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 82.86
6Mock Draft PicksBrenen ThompsonLos Angeles Chargers
Brenen Thompson to be picked at number 87
What happenedWent 105mocked at 8745.85Close · naive 5082.86this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=32.86better than naive×1difficulty=+32.86skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 32.86
- player:
- Brenen Thompson
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 45.85
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 105
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 45.85
- predicted pick:
- 87
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 82.86
7Mock Draft PicksJeremiah Smith
Jeremiah Smith to be picked “top five pick” (picks 1–5)
What happenedWent undrafted0Miss · naive 5082.86this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=32.86better than naive×1difficulty=+32.86skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 32.86
- player:
- Jeremiah Smith
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- top five pick (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 82.86
8Mock Draft PicksKeyshaun ElliottLos Angeles Chargers
Keyshaun Elliott to be picked at number 123
What happenedWent 166mocked at 12315.52Miss · naive 5082.86this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=32.86better than naive×1difficulty=+32.86skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 32.86
- player:
- Keyshaun Elliott
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 15.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 166
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 15.52
- predicted pick:
- 123
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 82.86
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 8 settled calls, each counted once
33.5naive 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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