Erick-Woods Erickson· Oct 23, 2024

Thirteen days out, Erickson says he is restraining himself from flatly declaring Trump the winner, arguing a tied race favors Trump given his history of outperforming polls. He also expects Harris to carry Nevada despite her collapsing numbers there, expects Kari Lake to be routed in Arizona's Senate race, and says Harris will not carry Texas, Florida or Kentucky.

“Instead, I find myself having to rein myself in from explicitly saying he has won thirteen days before the election.”

published in writing · Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 5 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 80 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“Harris has decided to campaign in Texas, Florida, and Kentucky in the last thirteen days. She will not win those three states but might save some Democrats.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“Harris has decided to campaign in Texas, Florida, and Kentucky in the last thirteen days. She will not win those three states but might save some Democrats.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ky
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Kentucky
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“Instead, I find myself having to rein myself in from explicitly saying he has won thirteen days before the election.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“In Nevada, a state I believe Harris will win, her polling is collapsing.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“Harris has decided to campaign in Texas, Florida, and Kentucky in the last thirteen days. She will not win those three states but might save some Democrats.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsOct 23, 2024
“Kari Lake will get crushed in Arizona, but the trend for Trump is positive, with momentum in his direction.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.