Pete Prisco#51 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 23, 2026

Prisco picks every Week 3 game with exact scores, highlighting upsets by Tampa Bay over Minnesota and Cleveland over Carolina, and expects the Giants to rally behind Jameis Winston.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

7 of 16calls landed7 hits · 3 close calls · 6 misses · 1 waiting

61.5Average accuracyout of 100, across 16 calls

65.5A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

16Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#51Pete Prisco’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Pete Prisco said

I have Tampa Bay beating Minnesota and Cleveland beating Carolina.

Pete Prisco, the lead quote

Where it was published: CBS Sports
The piece: Prisco's Week 3 NFL picks: Browns upset Panthers, Giants rally behind Jameis Winston
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 23
PlayedSep 24–28
GradedSep 25–29

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses	Waiting
Score Predictions	7	3	6	0
Availability Calls	0	0	0	1
All	7	3	6	1

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

17 checkable claims — 16 score predictions and 1 availability call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 18 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

16 of 17 have settled so far, averaging 61.5 out of 100, against 65.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Score Predictions7 hits · 3 close calls · 6 missesShow ▸

Philadelphia Eagles 27 — Bears 13
“The Eagles will limit the run game and win it behind their defense, with Jalen Hurts having a good day. Pick: Eagles 27, Bears 13”
Philadelphia Eagles
Bears 27–7called Eagles by 14 · lost by 20
35.71Miss
35.71 − 54.46 naive = −18.75 × 1.89 difficulty = −35.44 skill
Closing line (Sep 28): Eagles by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 27–13 calls a bigger Eagles win (by 14) and fewer points (40).
How this was scored
score:
7-27
skill:
−35.44
they picked:
PHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
35.71
baseline:
54.46
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
20
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
14
Think this is wrong?
Buffalo Bills 32 — Chargers 23
“Pick: Bills 32, Chargers 23”
Buffalo Bills
Bills 24–16called Bills by 9 · won by 8
97.62Hit
97.62 − 82.07 naive = 15.55 × 1.89 difficulty = +29.39 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Bills by 7, total 50.5 · this 32–23 calls a bigger Bills win (by 9) and more points (55).
How this was scored
score:
16-24
skill:
29.39
they picked:
BUF
season:
2026
accuracy:
97.62
baseline:
82.07
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
8
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
9
Think this is wrong?
Cleveland Browns 23 — Panthers 20
“The Browns take it in an upset. Pick: Browns 23, Panthers 20”
Cleveland Browns
Browns 21–18called Browns by 3 · won by 3
100Hit
100 − 93.97 naive = 6.03 × 1.89 difficulty = +11.39 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Panthers by 2.5, total 41.5 · this 23–20 calls a Browns win (by 3; the line gave the Browns 45%) and more points (43).
How this was scored
score:
18-21
skill:
11.39
they picked:
CLE
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
93.97
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
Detroit Lions 28 — Jets 23
“Pick: Lions 28, Jets 23”
Detroit Lions
Lions 31–24called Lions by 5 · won by 7
95.24Hit
95.24 − 84.45 naive = 10.79 × 1.89 difficulty = +20.39 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Lions by 7, total 49.5 · this 28–23 calls a closer game (Lions by 5) and more points (51).
How this was scored
score:
24-31
skill:
20.39
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
95.24
baseline:
84.45
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
5
Think this is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks 24 — Commanders 13
“Seattle takes it. Pick: Seahawks 24, Commanders 13”
Seattle Seahawks
Commanders 33–31called Seahawks by 11 · lost by 2
28.57Miss
28.57 − 96.35 naive = −67.78 × 1.89 difficulty = −128.11 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Seahawks by 8.5, total 40.5 · this 24–13 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 11) and fewer points (37).
How this was scored
score:
31-33
skill:
−128.11
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
28.57
baseline:
96.35
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
2
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
11
Think this is wrong?
New Orleans Saints 21 — Raiders 14
“Look for the Saints to look good in their home opener with Tyler Shough having another good day. Pick: Saints 21, Raiders 14”
New Orleans Saints
Raiders 35–27called Saints by 7 · lost by 8
47.62Close
47.62 − 32.07 naive = 15.55 × 1.89 difficulty = +29.39 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Saints by 3.5, total 43.5 · this 21–14 calls a bigger Saints win (by 7) and fewer points (35).
How this was scored
score:
35-27
skill:
29.39
they picked:
NO
season:
2026
accuracy:
47.62
baseline:
32.07
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
8
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
7
Think this is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs 28 — Dolphins 10
“Pick: Chiefs 28, Dolphins 10”
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs 24–10called Chiefs by 18 · won by 14
90.48Hit
90.48 − 17.78 naive = 72.7 × 1.89 difficulty = +137.39 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Chiefs by 10, total 45.5 · this 28–10 calls a bigger Chiefs win (by 18) and fewer points (38).
How this was scored
score:
24-10
skill:
137.39
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
90.48
baseline:
17.78
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
14
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
18
Think this is wrong?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 — Vikings 20
“this one will be won by the Bucs defense. They finally step up. Pick: Bucs 21, Vikings 20”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vikings 23–16called Buccaneers by 1 · lost by 7
35.71Miss
35.71 − 34.45 naive = 1.26 × 1.89 difficulty = +2.39 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Vikings by 1.5, total 42.5 · this 21–20 calls a Buccaneers win (by 1; the line gave the Buccaneers 50%) and fewer points (41).
How this was scored
score:
23-16
skill:
2.39
they picked:
TB
season:
2026
accuracy:
35.71
baseline:
34.45
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
1
Think this is wrong?
Cincinnati Bengals 23 — Steelers 13
“look for the Bengals to play well again on that side of the ball as they go to 3-0. Pick: Bengals 23, Steelers 13”
Cincinnati Bengals
Steelers 30–27called Bengals by 10 · lost by 3
33.33Miss
33.33 − 93.97 naive = −60.64 × 1.89 difficulty = −114.61 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Bengals by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 23–13 calls a bigger Bengals win (by 10) and fewer points (36).
How this was scored
score:
27-30
skill:
−114.61
they picked:
CIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
33.33
baseline:
93.97
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
10
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams 30 — Broncos 23
“Look for Matt Stafford and the Rams to win it. Pick: Rams 30, Broncos 23”
Los Angeles Rams
Broncos 30–26called Rams by 7 · lost by 4
42.86Close
42.86 − 91.59 naive = −48.73 × 1.89 difficulty = −92.11 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Broncos by 1.5, total 43.5 · this 30–23 calls a Rams win (by 7; the line gave the Rams 50%) and more points (53).
How this was scored
score:
26-30
skill:
−92.11
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
42.86
baseline:
91.59
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
4
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
7
Think this is wrong?
New York Giants 23 — Titans 14
“Look for the Giants to rally around him in Dart's absence. Pick: Giants 23, Titans 14”
New York Giants
Giants 12–7called Giants by 9 · won by 5
90.48Hit
90.48 − 89.21 naive = 1.27 × 1.89 difficulty = +2.39 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Giants by 2.5, total 37.5 · this 23–14 calls a bigger Giants win (by 9) and fewer points (37).
How this was scored
score:
7-12
skill:
2.39
they picked:
NYG
season:
2026
accuracy:
90.48
baseline:
89.21
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
9
Think this is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens 33 — Cowboys 30
“I think Jackson rebounds to lead the Ravens to a high-scoring victory. Pick: Ravens 33, Cowboys 30”
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens 34–31called Ravens by 3 · won by 3
100Hit
100 − 43.97 naive = 56.03 × 1.89 difficulty = +105.89 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Ravens by 3, total 53.5 · this 33–30 calls the line’s margin (Ravens by 3) and more points (63).
How this was scored
score:
34-31
skill:
105.89
they picked:
BAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
43.97
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
San Francisco 49ers 30 — Cardinals 17
“49ers take it. Pick: 49ers 30, Cardinals 17”
San Francisco 49ers
49ers 36–30called 49ers by 13 · won by 6
83.33Hit
83.33 − 86.83 naive = −3.5 × 1.89 difficulty = −6.61 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): 49ers by 7.5, total 48.5 · this 30–17 calls a bigger 49ers win (by 13) and fewer points (47).
How this was scored
score:
30-36
skill:
−6.61
they picked:
SF
season:
2026
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
86.83
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
13
Think this is wrong?
Houston Texans 31 — Colts 20
“The Texans get their first victory as the offense comes to life against the Colts. Pick: Texans 31, Colts 20”
Houston Texans
Colts 19–17called Texans by 11 · lost by 2
28.57Miss
28.57 − 96.35 naive = −67.78 × 1.89 difficulty = −128.11 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Texans by 1.5, total 41.5 · this 31–20 calls a bigger Texans win (by 11) and more points (51).
How this was scored
score:
17-19
skill:
−128.11
they picked:
HOU
season:
2026
accuracy:
28.57
baseline:
96.35
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
2
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
11
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars 21 — Patriots 16
“The Jaguars get back on track in a lower-scoring game. Pick: Jaguars 21, Patriots 16”
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars 35–6called Jaguars by 5 · won by 29
50Close
50 − 50 naive = 0 × 1.89 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Jaguars by 3, total 46.5 · this 21–16 calls a bigger Jaguars win (by 5) and fewer points (37).
How this was scored
score:
6-35
skill:
0
they picked:
JAX
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
50
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
29
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
5
Think this is wrong?
Green Bay Packers 27 — Falcons 17
“Pick: Packers 27, Falcons 17”
Green Bay Packers
Falcons 35–14called Packers by 10 · lost by 21
23.81Miss
23.81 − 0 naive = 23.81 × 1.89 difficulty = +45 skill
Closing line (Sep 24): Packers by 4.5, total 43.5 · this 27–17 calls a bigger Packers win (by 10) and more points (44).
How this was scored
score:
35-14
skill:
45
they picked:
GB
season:
2026
accuracy:
23.81
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
21
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
−0.45
predicted margin:
10
Think this is wrong?

Availability Calls1 waitingShow ▸

“the Bears will likely be without injured quarterback Caleb Williams and could be without backup Tyson Bagent (Monday night, Week 3)”
Caleb Williams Chicago Bears
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?