David Pakman· Oct 22, 2024

Pakman gives his most likely presidential outcome: the 2020 map with Georgia and Arizona flipping to Trump, but Harris still winning the presidency with a narrower electoral margin than Biden. He says he is not ready to flip Pennsylvania or Wisconsin from the Democratic column, and that Trump probably won't win New Hampshire.

“It's the 2020 map with probably Georgia flipped to Trump. Likely Arizona flipped to Trump and maybe maybe a state like Nevada. Harris still wins in that scenario”

said on air, transcribed by us · The David Pakman Show · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 6 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 6 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 16.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“Even if Trump does get New Hampshire, which he probably won't”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nh
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Trump... probably won't
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“If if you said, David, give me the most likely outcome today. It's a map. It's the 2020 map with probably Georgia flipped to Trump. Likely Arizona flipped to Trump... Harris still wins in that scenario, but with a smaller margin than Biden”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
the most likely outcome
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“Likely Arizona flipped to Trump”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-az
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Likely
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“In Pennsylvania, Trump is leading by less than one. He's leading, but by less than one. I'm certainly not ready to flip it.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“It's the 2020 map with probably Georgia flipped to Trump.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ga
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
probably
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“I'm not ready to flip Wisconsin. Trump's leading by only 0.4 there.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.