2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona

Presidency · November 5, 2024 · certified

The ballot

The deciding round's shares, from the certified result.

Donald Trump (Republican)Won11 EV · 52.2% · 1,770,242
Kamala Harris (Democratic)46.7% · 1,582,860
Jill Stein (Green)0.5% · 18,319
Chase Oliver (Libertarian)0.5% · 17,898

Donald Trump by 5.5 points in the general · held by the Democratic party going in · flipped · source: fec-2024-president

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Oct 27Nov 3Nov 10

Donald Trump 16Kamala Harris 1· 17 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Donald Trump18 picks · won
Kamala Harris1 pick · lost

Every claim about this race (20)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.

David Frum: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Robby Soave: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Ben Shapiro: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Seth Keshel: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Nate Silver: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “the safest bet for Trump”
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Saagar Enjeti: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Krystal Ball: Kamala Harris wins AZ's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Miss · 0
Sean Spicer: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “I feel bullish”
Race Winners · Nov 3, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Clay Travis: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 2, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Harrison Lavelle: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “Leans Republican”
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Daniel Horowitz: an unnamed party wins AZ's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Too vague to check
Steve Deace: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Ben Shapiro: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “The most likely scenario right now”
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Megyn Kelly: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “definitely leaning Trump”
Race Winners · Oct 31, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Ben Shapiro: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “likely carries it over the finish line”
Race Winners · Oct 31, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Lakshya Jain: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “a slight edge”
Race Winners · Oct 26, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Bill Scher: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 25, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Scott Rasmussen: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “he should feel pretty good about Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina”
Race Winners · Oct 24, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
Brent Buchanan: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100
David Pakman: Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “Likely”
Race Winners · Oct 22, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100