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Chad MillmanJul 23, 2025

Millman says they and their co-host both rank Baker Mayfield as their No. 10 fantasy quarterback, and they expect Mike Vrabel's coaching to be worth about three wins for New England.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

83Hit · out of 100
Finished #12What happenedcalled #10 · by fantasy points
33.33A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
83.33This callout of 100
+100Skillafter difficulty

What Chad Millman said

We both like Baker as a top ten quarterback. We both had him at number ten.
Our reading: Baker Mayfield to finish top 10 at his position, by fantasy points
The episode
The Favorites - Top 10 NFL Fantasy Moves
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidJul 22, 2025
  2. GradedAug 5, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

The call scored 83.3 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

positional finish
10They said
12What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. Positional FinishesBaker MayfieldTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Baker Mayfield to finish top 10 at his position, by fantasy points

    What happenedFinished #12called #10 · by fantasy points
    83.33Hit · naive 33.33
    83.33this call33.33a naive guess50better than naive2difficulty+100skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    100
    player:
    Baker Mayfield
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    12
    accuracy:
    83.33
    baseline:
    33.33
    position:
    QB
    ranked by:
    fantasy points
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    4
    actual finish:
    12
    weeks left when called:
    18
    predicted finish:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

Others on the same people

More positional finishes

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.