Ryan Tracy· Mar 12, 2026
Ryan lays out his draft board and expectations for the edge and interior classes: Arbel Reese is his top edge ahead of David Bailey and Ruben Baine, all three likely gone before Kansas City's ninth pick (though he thinks Reese could slip to nine), with TJ Parker and Messador off the board before pick 40, Fano going early, Freeling around pick 29, and Caden McDonald his top defensive tackle.
“Arbel Rees is my number one edge, followed by Bailey and Bain.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Chiefs (podcast) · read the original →
11 checkable claims — 9 mock draft picks, 1 position order call and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
positional finishTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
11 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Position Order CallsCade McDonaldMar 12, 2026
Cade McDonald to be 1st defensive tackle off the board
“the interior and the defensive line, particularly Caden McDonald, who's my number one defensive tackle”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- player:
- Cade McDonald
- season:
- 2026
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; later signed with CLE
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- position:
- defensive tackle
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- undrafted
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyMar 12, 2026
David Bailey to be picked “very likely to be gone before No. 9”
“He, Ruben Baine, David Bailey, very likely to be gone.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateMar 12, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked “likely gone before No. 9”
“I personally have come around on he being as good as a wide receiver prospect at this point, knowing that Tate is likely gone.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksMonroe FreelingMar 12, 2026
Monroe Freeling to be picked “right around this area (No. 29)”
“I do think that Freeling's probably gonna be right around this area.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksK.C. ConcepcionMar 12, 2026
K.C. Concepcion to be picked “more of a forties, maybe into the high thirties”
“From from what I've seen, he's more of a forties, maybe into the high thirties. But 20 a little rich for me.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseMar 12, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked “still available at No. 9”
“Is there a chance that somebody doesn't think that he's a top eight pick and they leave him there at nine... So I do think he is still in there”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksRueben BainMar 12, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked “very likely to be gone before No. 9”
“He, Ruben Baine, David Bailey, very likely to be gone.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Top Player ListsMar 12, 2026
“Arbel Rees is my number one edge, followed by Bailey and Bain. All of them very, very tight because Reiss is such a projection.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksT.J. ParkerMar 12, 2026
T.J. Parker to be picked “drafted before No. 40”
“Now he and Messador are two guys that could be there, could be gone four picks before, or could be sitting there at 40. I doubt either of them last to 40 at this point”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksSpencer FanoMar 12, 2026
Spencer Fano to be picked “go up top”
“I think Fano's gonna go up top.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksAkheem MesidorMar 12, 2026
Akheem Mesidor to be picked “drafted before No. 40”
“I doubt either of them last to 40 at this point, so 20 nine's gotta be the spot.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Arvell ReeseHit · 100Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker.
- Nick PedoneRoster Spot Calls · K.C. ConcepcionHit · 100Previewing the Browns' preseason finale, Pedone says five receivers — Jerry Jeudy, KC Concepcion, Denzel Boston, Isaiah Bond and Tylan Wallace — are very likely to make Cleveland's 53-man roster, leaving one final spot open for Luke Floriea and others.
- Nick PedoneRoster Spot Calls · K.C. ConcepcionHit · 100Reading the Browns' first depth chart, Pedone projects Deshaun Watson as the Week 1 starting quarterback, lays out the full projected starting offensive line with Parker Brailsford as backup center, expects KT Leveston to make the roster as guard depth, and names Jeudy, Concepcion, Boston and Bond as roster locks with Tylan Wallace as the fifth receiver.
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · T.J. ParkerHit · 100Gurzi predicts the Buffalo Bills' final 53-man roster ahead of Week 1 against Houston, naming every player who makes it, who gets cut, and a few depth-chart outcomes (Damar Hamlin as backup safety, Alec Anderson as a new starter on the offensive line, Shane Buechele back on the practice squad).
- Joe MarinoRoster Spot Calls · T.J. ParkerHit · 100Joe Marino gives his final projection of the Buffalo Bills' initial 53-man roster after the preseason finale, naming who makes it, who gets cut, and who lands on injured reserve/PUP, along with several starting-job calls (Kyle Allen as QB2, TJ Sanders starting over Landon Jackson, Maxwell Hairston starting opposite Christian Benford, and Tommy Doman winning the punting job).
- Zach RobertsRoster Spot Calls · Monroe FreelingHit · 100Roberts projects the Carolina Panthers' 53-man roster following the Hall of Fame Game, naming every player he expects to make the team at each position, and pegs AJ Dillon as the fourth running back on the depth chart.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.