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Natalie KerwinApr 8, 2026

Natalie's Lions mock pick at No. 17 in the 2026 draft was Utah offensive tackle Spencer Fano, with Penn State guard Olaivavega Ioane as their backup selection at that spot.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Lions (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · all settled
79.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 2Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Natalie Kerwin said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Spencer Fano at pick 17 out of Utah.
Natalie Kerwin, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Locked On Lions (podcast)
The episode
LIONS SQUAD SHOW: NFL Draft: Mock Draft Simulation Squad Show Style + Avonte Maddox Re-Signed
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidApr 7
  2. GradedOct 1
  1. 1Spencer Fano to be picked at number 17“With the seventeenth pick in the twenty twenty six NFL draft, the Detroit Lions select. Spencer Fano at pick 17 out of Utah.”
  2. 2Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 17“So backup pick, I would take the guard, Oliva Vega, Yoani... So he would be a guard for the for the lions.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Spencer Fano to be picked at number 171Mock Draft PicksWent 970.7150—
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 172Mock Draft PicksWent 1487.8150—
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · all settled79.350

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 79.3 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Where this call stands in the room

Spencer Fano · 2026 season · overall pick

4 calls from 3 pundits between 9 overall pick and 17 overall pick. Natalie Kerwin said 17 overall pick. the room's median is 17 overall pick. what happened: 9 overall pick

Natalie Kerwin — 17 overall pickthe room — 4 calls from 3 punditsmedian 17 overall pickwhat happened — 9 overall pick

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
17They said
9What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Mock Draft PicksSpencer FanoDetroit Lions

    Spencer Fano to be picked at number 17

    What happenedWent 9mocked at 17
    70.71Close · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Spencer Fano
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    70.71
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    9
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    70.71
    predicted pick:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    no two picks we can place at different pick numbers — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Mock Draft PicksOlaivavega IoaneDetroit Lions

    Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 17

    What happenedWent 14mocked at 17
    87.81Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Olaivavega Ioane
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    87.81
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    14
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    87.81
    predicted pick:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    no two picks we can place at different pick numbers — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    79.3naive 50

Who this take is about

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