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Jake ArthurOct 2, 2026

Arthur picked the Colts to beat the Commanders in London in a low-scoring game, predicting a 20-13 final with Indianapolis' healthier roster making the difference.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Colts (podcast)Hear the original

76Close · out of 100
Colts 30–13What happenedcalled Colts by 7 · won by 17
10.86A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
76.19This callout of 100
+119.56Skillafter difficulty

What Jake Arthur said

But I have the Colts winning 20 to 13.
Our reading: Indianapolis Colts 20 — Commanders 13
Where it was said
Locked On Colts (podcast)
The episode
PREDICTION: Indianapolis Colts MUST Take Advantage of Battered Washington Commanders in London
The original
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  1. SaidOct 2
  2. PlayedOct 4
  3. GradedOct 4

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 76.2 out of 100, against 10.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsIndianapolis Colts

    Indianapolis Colts 20 — Commanders 13

    What happenedColts 30–13called Colts by 7 · won by 17
    76.19Close · naive 10.86
    76.19this call10.86a naive guess65.33better than naive1.83difficulty+119.56skill

    Closing line (Oct 4): Colts by 4.5, total 46.5 · this 20–13 calls a bigger Colts win (by 7) and fewer points (33).

    How this was scored
    score:
    30-13
    skill:
    119.56
    they picked:
    IND
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    76.19
    baseline:
    10.86
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    15
    naive home margin:
    0.56
    predicted margin:
    7
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