Marty MornhinwegSep 6, 2022
Mornhinweg picked Patrick Mahomes MVP, Lamar Jackson OPOY, Micah Parsons DPOY, Kenny Pickett OROY, Kyle Hamilton DROY, Christian McCaffrey Comeback Player and Andy Reid Coach of the Year.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Marty Mornhinweg said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromMarty Mornhinweg, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2022 NFL Awards Predictions: MVP, Rookies of the Year, and More - The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Sep 7, 2022
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidSep 5, 2022
- GradedAug 5, 2026
- 1Patrick Mahomes to win Most Valuable Player“T2. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (3 votes: Charles Davis, Marty Mornhinweg, Wade Phillips)”
- 2Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year“T2. Cowboys LB Micah Parsons (3 votes: Cassel, Mornhinweg, Pagano)”
- 3Andy Reid to win Coach of the Year“T3. Chiefs coach Andy Reid (2 votes: Davis, Mornhinweg)”
- 4Kyle Hamilton to win Defensive Rookie of the Year“Ravens S Kyle Hamilton (1 vote: Mornhinweg)”
- 5Kenny Pickett to win Offensive Rookie of the Year“T2. Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (3 votes: Mornhinweg, Phillips, Wannstedt)”
- 6Lamar Jackson to win Offensive Player of the Year“Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (1 vote: Mornhinweg)”
- 7Christian McCaffrey to win Comeback Player of the Year“3. Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey (2 votes: Jennings, Mornhinweg)”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes to win Most Valuable Player1 | Award Picks | Patrick Mahomes won | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year2 | Award Picks | Nick Bosa won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Andy Reid to win Coach of the Year3 | Coach Award Picks | Brian Daboll won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kyle Hamilton to win Defensive Rookie of the Year4 | Award Picks | Sauce Gardner won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kenny Pickett to win Offensive Rookie of the Year5 | Award Picks | Garrett Wilson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lamar Jackson to win Offensive Player of the Year6 | Award Picks | Justin Jefferson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Christian McCaffrey to win Comeback Player of the Year7 | Award Picks | Geno Smith won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 calls · 1 hit · 6 misses · all settled | 14.3 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive7 checkable claims — 6 award picks and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 14.3 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Award PicksPatrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes to win Most Valuable Player
What happenedPatrick Mahomes won100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Patrick Mahomes
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Patrick Mahomes
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Award PicksMicah ParsonsDallas Cowboys
Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedNick Bosa woncalled Micah Parsons0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was T.J. Watt, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Micah Parsons
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Nick Bosa
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
3Coach Award PicksKansas City Chiefs
Andy Reid to win Coach of the Year
What happenedBrian Daboll woncalled Andy Reid0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Andy Reid
- naive:
- the naive pick was Mike Vrabel, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Brian Daboll
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Award PicksKyle HamiltonBaltimore Ravens
Kyle Hamilton to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedSauce Gardner woncalled Kyle Hamilton0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Micah Parsons, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Kyle Hamilton
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Sauce Gardner
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
5Award PicksKenny PickettPittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedGarrett Wilson woncalled Kenny Pickett0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Kenny Pickett
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Garrett Wilson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
6Award PicksLamar JacksonBaltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson to win Offensive Player of the Year
What happenedJustin Jefferson woncalled Lamar Jackson0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Cooper Kupp, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Justin Jefferson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
7Award PicksChristian McCaffreyCarolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey to win Comeback Player of the Year
What happenedGeno Smith woncalled Christian McCaffrey0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- comeback_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Joe Burrow, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Geno Smith
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
14.3naive 0
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.Bryan DeArdo · Trade and Signing Calls · Joey Porter Jr. · Miss 0
The piece predicts Joey Porter Jr. most likely stays with the Steelers through 2026, while listing possible trade destinations if they were moved.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Willie Colon · Award Picks · Sam Darnold · Miss 0
Colon picked the Seahawks to win 24-14 with Sam Darnold as Super Bowl MVP.Danny Parkins · Award Picks · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Miss 0
Parkins picked Seattle to win 27-16 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Super Bowl MVP.