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Grant ReiterAug 18, 2021

A bold-predictions piece argues the Jaguars will go worst-to-first by winning a weak AFC South, while also claiming the Falcons' offense will outperform the Titans', the Cowboys' defense will jump from 23rd, Sam Darnold will improve in Carolina, the Jets will have the league's worst defense, and the Steelers will be among the NFL's worst offenses.

Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original

0Miss · out of 100
Division WinnersThe callsettled
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
−200Skillafter difficulty

What Grant Reiter said

Although Lawrence is yet to be named the starter, the Jaguars are poised to have a real chance at winning a weak AFC South.
Our reading: Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
Where it was published
The 33rd Team
The piece
6 Bold Predictions for the 2021 NFL Season - The 33rd Team

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.

  1. SaidAug 18, 2021
  2. GradedAug 17, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Division WinnersJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    −200
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2021
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    TEN
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    won the division:
    no
    Think this is wrong?

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