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Zack KelbermanSep 18, 2026

Kelberman picks a narrow Broncos home win, with Bo Nix doing just enough in the clutch.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

86Hit · out of 100
Broncos 20–13What happenedcalled Broncos by 1 · won by 7
82.1A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
85.71This callout of 100
+7Skillafter difficulty

What Zack Kelberman said

clutch Bo Nix makes his debut and does enough to get the job done
Our reading: Denver Broncos 20 — Jaguars 19
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Mile High Roundtable Delivers Predictions & Picks for Broncos-Jaguars
The original
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  1. SaidSep 18
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 85.7 out of 100, against 82.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsDenver Broncos

    Denver Broncos 20 — Jaguars 19

    What happenedBroncos 20–13called Broncos by 1 · won by 7
    85.71Hit · naive 82.1
    85.71this call82.1a naive guess3.61better than naive1.94difficulty+7skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Broncos by 2.5, total 45.5 · this 20–19 calls a closer game (Broncos by 1) and fewer points (39).

    How this was scored
    score:
    13-20
    skill:
    7
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    85.71
    baseline:
    82.1
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    −0.52
    predicted margin:
    1
    Think this is wrong?

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