Dan PizzutaApr 24, 2024
Ahead of the 2024 draft, Pizzuta predicts a team trades up into the top 10 for a wide receiver, an interior defensive lineman (Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan Newton) is the first defender drafted, a surprise team trades up for J.J. McCarthy ahead of the Vikings, and only four quarterbacks (Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy) are selected in the first round.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
4 of 8calls landed4 hits · 3 close calls · 1 miss · all settled
73.1Average accuracyout of 100, across 8 calls
49.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
8 of 8Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Dan Pizzuta said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromOnly four quarterbacks go in the first round
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions Ahead of the 1st Round | The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived May 30, 2024
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidApr 24, 2024
- GradedAug 5–18, 2026
- 1J.J. McCarthy to be picked “surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board” (picks 1–135)“the fourth quarterback off the board ... we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
- 2Michael Penix Jr. to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)“Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.”
- 3Jayden Daniels to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
- 4Drake Maye to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
- 5Caleb Williams to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
- 6J.J. McCarthy to be 4th quarterback off the board“A surprise team Trades up for J.J. McCarthy ... other suitors just behind could be more desperate to get ahead of them for the fourth quarterback off the board.”
- 7Bo Nix to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)“Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.”
- 8Jer'Zhan Newton to be picked at number 15“Our big board has Newton 15th overall and first at the position.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy to be picked “surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board” (picks 1–135)1 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 10 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Michael Penix Jr. to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)2 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 8 | 33.86 | 50 | — | |
| Jayden Daniels to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)3 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 2 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Drake Maye to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)4 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 3 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Caleb Williams to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)5 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| J.J. McCarthy to be 4th quarterback off the board6 | Position Order Calls | — | 70.71 | 44.76 | +25.96 | |
| Bo Nix to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)7 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 12 | 40.26 | 50 | — | |
| Jer'Zhan Newton to be picked at number 158 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 36 | 40.26 | 50 | — | |
| 8 calls · 4 hits · 3 close calls · 1 miss · all settled | 73.1 | 49.3 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive8 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 73.1 out of 100, against 49.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall picksurefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board (picks 1–135)They said
10What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksJ.J. McCarthy
J.J. McCarthy to be picked “surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board” (picks 1–135)
What happenedWent 10100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- J.J. McCarthy
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board (picks 1–135)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Mock Draft PicksMichael Penix Jr.
Michael Penix Jr. to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)
What happenedWent 833.86Miss · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Michael Penix Jr.
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 33.86
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 33.86
- predicted pick:
- early second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
3Mock Draft PicksJayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 2100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jayden Daniels
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Drake Maye to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 3100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
5Mock Draft PicksCaleb Williams
Caleb Williams to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 1100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
6Position Order CallsJ.J. McCarthy
J.J. McCarthy to be 4th quarterback off the board
VerdictClose70.71Close · naive 44.7670.71this call−44.76a naive guess=25.95better than naive×1difficulty=+25.96skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- naming one of the 11 at random averages 44.76
- skill:
- 25.96
- player:
- J.J. McCarthy
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 44.76
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 5
- predicted order:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Bo Nix to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)
What happenedWent 1240.26Close · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Bo Nix
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 40.26
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 40.26
- predicted pick:
- early second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
8Mock Draft PicksJer'Zhan Newton
Jer'Zhan Newton to be picked at number 15
What happenedWent 36mocked at 1540.26Close · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jer'Zhan Newton
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 40.26
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 36
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 40.26
- predicted pick:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 8 settled calls, each counted once
73.1naive 49.3
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Patricia Traina · Trade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthy · Hit 100
Traina expects defensive tackle to be a top need for the Giants in next year's draft, and suggests the Giants could trade J.J. McCarthy next offseason — or keep both them and Jaxson Dart if the return isn't good enough. They also expect Dart to make a full recovery.John Middlekauff · Draft Bust Calls · Caleb Williams · Miss 0
Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.David Harrison · Roster Spot Calls · Jer'Zhan Newton · Hit 100
Harrison gives their initial 53-man roster projection for the Washington Commanders: three quarterbacks including Ethan Kalyak Manus, three running backs, four tight ends, six receivers (leaving off De'Ami Brown and Jaden Bradley), nine offensive linemen with Matt Goldman at center, and a defense of six linebackers but only four cornerbacks. They also project Tunstall and Newton going to IR on Monday with De'Ami Brown and Dietrich Wise re-signed, plus a corner-heavy practice squad.David Harrison · Roster Spot Calls · Jer'Zhan Newton · Hit 100
Harrison projects the Washington Commanders' initial 53-man roster if it had to be set today, naming 26 offensive players, three specialists and 24 defenders, and also assigns depth-chart slots at quarterback, running back, the offensive line, the interior defensive line, and the return/specialist jobs.Jacob Herlin · Depth Chart Calls · J.J. McCarthy · Hit 100
Herlin published Week 7 fantasy D/ST rankings with projections for 28 team defenses, led by Houston, Minnesota and Cleveland. They also expect Cleveland to post a fourth straight top-10 fantasy defense result, and predicts Jalon Daniels starts another week for Tampa Bay while J.J. McCarthy takes over as the Giants' starter.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.