Dan Pizzuta· Apr 24, 2024
Ahead of the 2024 draft, Pizzuta predicts a team trades up into the top 10 for a wide receiver, an interior defensive lineman (Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan Newton) is the first defender drafted, a surprise team trades up for J.J. McCarthy ahead of the Vikings, and only four quarterbacks (Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy) are selected in the first round.
“Only four quarterbacks go in the first round”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived May 30, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
8 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 73.1 out of 100, against 49.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksJ.J. McCarthyApr 24, 2024
J.J. McCarthy to be picked “surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board” (picks 1–135)
“the fourth quarterback off the board ... we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- J.J. McCarthy
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board (picks 1–135)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksMichael Penix Jr.Apr 24, 2024
Michael Penix Jr. to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)
“Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.”
Miss · 34Scored 33.86a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Michael Penix Jr.
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 33.86
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 33.86
- predicted pick:
- early second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksJayden DanielsApr 24, 2024
Jayden Daniels to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jayden Daniels
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksDrake MayeApr 24, 2024
Drake Maye to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb WilliamsApr 24, 2024
Caleb Williams to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Position Order CallsJ.J. McCarthyApr 24, 2024
J.J. McCarthy to be 4th quarterback off the board
“A surprise team Trades up for J.J. McCarthy ... other suitors just behind could be more desperate to get ahead of them for the fourth quarterback off the board.”
Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 44.76+25.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- naming one of the 11 at random averages 44.76
- skill:
- 25.96
- player:
- J.J. McCarthy
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 44.76
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 5
- predicted order:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksBo NixApr 24, 2024
Bo Nix to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)
“Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.”
Close · 40Scored 40.26a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Bo Nix
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 40.26
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 40.26
- predicted pick:
- early second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksJer'Zhan NewtonApr 24, 2024
Jer'Zhan Newton to be picked at number 15
“Our big board has Newton 15th overall and first at the position.”
Close · 40Scored 40.26a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jer'Zhan Newton
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 40.26
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 36
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 40.26
- predicted pick:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
What others said about the same people
- Ryan WilsonPosition Order Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Adam CarlsonTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Carlson names three Vikings he expects could be traded before the end of September: quarterback J.J. McCarthy, wide receiver Jordan Addison and linebacker Ivan Pace.
- Greg AumanTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Auman argues no quarterback is likely to replicate Sam Darnold's turnaround this season, but names five candidates. He expects Miami to hold a very high pick in the 2027 draft, and thinks J.J. McCarthy will eventually be traded for a late-round pick or cut by the Vikings.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Bryan DeArdoTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Named several players as candidates to be traded before Sunday's cut deadline, including Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy, Cardinals edge Josh Sweat and Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr.
- Bryan DeArdoTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100A CBS Sports piece lists veterans it expects could be traded before the 53-man roster deadline, including quarterbacks Anthony Richardson (with Buffalo floated as a landing spot), J.J. McCarthy and Will Howard, plus Jerry Jeudy, Joey Porter Jr., Tyrone Tracy Jr., Kayvon Thibodeaux, Josh Sweat, Kristian Fulton and Marist Liufau. It also says Mason Rudolph's and Drew Allar's roster spots in Pittsburgh are secure.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.