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John Breech#34 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 16, 2026

Breech picked the Panthers to win in Philadelphia 27-24 and the 49ers to roll past the Commanders 34-20.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · all settled
81Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
55A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#34John Breech’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What John Breech said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
The team coming off the international game has gone 0-4.
John Breech, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
NFL Week 6 odds, predictions, expert picks: Cowboys roll into Lambeau Field to face Packers
The original
Read the original
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  1. SaidOct 16
  2. PlayedOct 18–19
  3. GradedOct 18–20
  1. 1San Francisco 49ers 34 — Commanders 20“John Breech on why he has the 49ers rolling over the Commanders, 34-20.”
  2. 2Carolina Panthers 27 — Philly 24“CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech on why Carolina pulls out the 27-24 win over Philly.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
San Francisco 49ers 34 — Commanders 201Score Predictions49ers 23–1780.9586.23−9.07
Carolina Panthers 27 — Philly 242Score PredictionsPanthers 25–1480.9523.81+98.29
2 calls · 2 hits · all settled8155

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 81 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Score PredictionsSan Francisco 49ers

    San Francisco 49ers 34 — Commanders 20

    What happened49ers 23–17called 49ers by 14 · won by 6
    80.95Hit · naive 86.23
    80.95this call86.23a naive guess−5.28worse than naive1.72difficulty−9.07skill

    Closing line (Oct 19): 49ers by 7.5, total 51.5 · this 34–20 calls a bigger 49ers win (by 14) and more points (54).

    How this was scored
    score:
    17-23
    skill:
    −9.07
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    80.95
    baseline:
    86.23
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    13
    naive home margin:
    0.22
    predicted margin:
    14
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Score PredictionsCarolina Panthers

    Carolina Panthers 27 — Philly 24

    What happenedPanthers 25–14called Panthers by 3 · won by 11
    80.95Hit · naive 23.81
    80.95this call23.81a naive guess57.14better than naive1.72difficulty+98.29skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Panthers by 3, total 39.5 · this 27–24 calls the line’s margin (Panthers by 3) and more points (51).

    How this was scored
    score:
    25-14
    skill:
    98.29
    they picked:
    CAR
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    80.95
    baseline:
    23.81
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    11
    weeks left when called:
    13
    naive home margin:
    0
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    81naive 55

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