Marcus Mosher· Sep 17, 2024
Mosher ranks all 32 NFL teams entering Week 3 of the 2024 season, with the Chiefs on top and the Panthers last, and mixes in forecasts: the Bills winning the AFC East, the Texans potentially reaching the AFC Championship, the Steelers starting 4-0 and winning the AFC North, the Saints and Buccaneers as playoff teams, the Cardinals as an NFC sleeper, and the Jaguars falling to 0-3.
“If Buffalo's defense continues to improve, there is no reason why they shouldn't win the AFC East again this year.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Sep 17, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
9 checkable claims — 2 division winners, 2 playoff picks, 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick, 1 power ranking, 1 season win total and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
7 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 53.5 out of 100, against 95.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsHouston TexansSep 17, 2024
Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl
“The addition of Danielle Hunter could end up being why the Houston Texans make it to the AFC Championship this season.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -189
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Division WinnersBuffalo BillsSep 17, 2024
Buffalo Bills to win the division
“If Buffalo's defense continues to improve, there is no reason why they shouldn't win the AFC East again this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- won the division:
- yes
- Division WinnersPittsburgh SteelersSep 17, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers to win the division
“And with the rest of the AFC North falling apart, this might just be their year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -189
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- won the division:
- no
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 17, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“Don't look now, but the Buccaneers and the Saints both look like legitimate playoff teams this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Power RankingsSep 17, 2024
“NFL Week 3 Power Rankings — 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. Carolina Panthers”
Close · 74Scored 74.3a naive guess scored 67.38+13.09 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 13.09
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 74.3
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsSep 17, 2024
Buffalo Bills to beat Jacksonville Jaguars
“With the Bills up next, the Jaguars are looking at a possible 0-3 start.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 10-47
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Playoff PicksNew Orleans SaintsSep 17, 2024
New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs
“Don't look now, but the Buccaneers and the Saints both look like legitimate playoff teams this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NO
- skill:
- -189
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Season Win TotalsPittsburgh SteelersSep 17, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with ? wins
“With a pretty favorable schedule upcoming, Pittsburgh could easily start the season off with four straight wins.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
- Surprise Team CallsArizona CardinalsSep 17, 2024
Arizona Cardinals to beat expectations
“Arizona has one of the league's most fun offenses and could be a bit of a sleeper in the NFC this season.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Marcus RayScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19Marcus predicted a 30-13 Buccaneers win over Cleveland with three touchdowns and three field goals, and picked the Raiders to beat a Jim Harbaugh team to start 2-0.
- Ryan LaVoyScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 17LaVoy predicted a 28-10 Buccaneers win over the Browns, said even the Falcons would beat Cleveland, and named Detroit, Baltimore and the Rams as teams he expects in the playoffs.
- Jaron SporScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19The host predicted a comfortable Buccaneers win over Cleveland, 27-10, picked Jacksonville as an upset winner at Denver, said the Giants could win seven or eight games as a sneaky team, and expected Deshaun Watson and the Browns to part ways soon.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. He also names the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.
- Danny ParkinsDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Parkins lays the points with the Eagles and Cowboys, takes Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, picks Carolina over Tampa Bay and Seattle over San Francisco, and says he'd probably pick the Rams to come out of the NFC.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.