Marcus Mosher#41 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 17, 2024
Mosher ranks all 32 NFL teams entering Week 3 of the 2024 season, with the Chiefs on top and the Panthers last, and mixes in forecasts: the Bills winning the AFC East, the Texans potentially reaching the AFC Championship, the Steelers starting 4-0 and winning the AFC North, the Saints and Buccaneers as playoff teams, the Cardinals as an NFC sleeper, and the Jaguars falling to 0-3.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Marcus Mosher said
If Buffalo's defense continues to improve, there is no reason why they shouldn't win the AFC East again this year.
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2024 NFL Week 3 Power Rankings: Texans Enter Top 3, Ravens Are in Free Fall | The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Sep 17, 2024
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidSep 17, 2024
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Too vague | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference Champions | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Division Winners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Playoff Picks | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Power Rankings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Game Outcome Picks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Season Win Totals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Surprise Team Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| All | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
9 claims — 2 division winners, 2 playoff picks, 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick, 1 power ranking, 1 season win total and 1 surprise team call — the 8 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
7 of the 8 calls we can check have settled so far, averaging 53.5 out of 100, against 95.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Conference Champions1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl
“The addition of Danielle Hunter could end up being why the Houston Texans make it to the AFC Championship this season.”
PHI and KC wonpicked HOU0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.89 difficulty = −189 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −189
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI, KC
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
Division Winners1 hit · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Buffalo Bills to win the division
“If Buffalo's defense continues to improve, there is no reason why they shouldn't win the AFC East again this year.”
100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.89 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- won the division:
- yes
Pittsburgh Steelers to win the division
“And with the rest of the AFC North falling apart, this might just be their year.”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.89 difficulty = −189 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −189
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- won the division:
- no
Playoff Picks1 hit · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“Don't look now, but the Buccaneers and the Saints both look like legitimate playoff teams this year.”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.89 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 16
New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs
“Don't look now, but the Buccaneers and the Saints both look like legitimate playoff teams this year.”
Missed the playoffs0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.89 difficulty = −189 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NO
- skill:
- −189
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 16
Power Rankings1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
“NFL Week 3 Power Rankings — 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. Carolina Panthers”
74.3Close74.3 − 67.38 naive = 6.92 × 1.89 difficulty = +13.09 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 13.09
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 74.3
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 16
Game Outcome Picks1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Buffalo Bills to beat Jacksonville Jaguars
“With the Bills up next, the Jaguars are looking at a possible 0-3 start.”
100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.89 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 23): Bills by 4 · favorite pick, Bills about 2 in 3 (66%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 10-47
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
Season Win Totals · 1 too vague to checkShow ▸Hide ▾
“With a pretty favorable schedule upcoming, Pittsburgh could easily start the season off with four straight wins.”
—Too vague to checkToo vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.
Surprise Team Calls1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Arizona Cardinals to beat expectations
“Arizona has one of the league's most fun offenses and could be a bit of a sleeper in the NFC this season.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.John Breech · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 62
Dajani picked the Bills to edge the Vikings 24-23.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 74
Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Sullivan picked the Bills to beat the Vikings 24-17.Bryan DeArdo · Trade and Signing Calls · Joey Porter Jr. · Miss 0
The piece predicts Joey Porter Jr. most likely stays with the Steelers through 2026, while listing possible trade destinations if they were moved.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Daniel DiBerardinis · Division Winners · Atlanta Falcons · Miss 0
Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. They also give a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · New York Giants · Miss 0
Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. They also expect Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and they float the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · Los Angeles Chargers · Miss 0
Cowherd unveiled their top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · Baltimore Ravens · Miss 0
Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. They also name the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.Rich Eisen · Division Winners · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.