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Joe ScarboroughJul 1, 2024

Reacting to Biden's debate performance, they said they expect Donald Trump to win the presidency.

Said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and SaagarHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Donald Trump wonWhat happenedcertified result
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+117Skillafter difficulty

What Joe Scarborough said

We saw last night, why this race has been close, and why I fear Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States.
Our reading: Donald Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election
The episode
7/1/24: NYT Says Biden Drop Out, Kamala Implodes Defending Debate, Biden Donor Revolt, 72% Say Biden Mentally Unfit, Far Right Stuns Macron In French Elections, Glenn Greenwald Sounds Off On Biden Age
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidJul 1, 2024
  2. Election DayNov 5, 2024
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Donald Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election

    What happenedDonald Trump woncertified result
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.17difficulty+117skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2024-president
    election year:
    2024
    skill:
    117
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    fec-2024-president
    who won:
    Donald Trump
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2024 U.S. presidential election
    decided in the:
    electoral-college
    they said:
    Donald Trump
    days before the vote when called:
    126
    difficulty:
    1.17
    the winner's party:
    Republican
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

The race in this take

every call on each

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.