Joe ScarboroughJul 1, 2024
Reacting to Biden's debate performance, they said they expect Donald Trump to win the presidency.
Said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and SaagarHear the original
100Hit · out of 100
Donald Trump wonWhat happenedcertified result
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+117Skillafter difficulty
What Joe Scarborough said
We saw last night, why this race has been close, and why I fear Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States.
- Where it was said
- Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
- The episode
- 7/1/24: NYT Says Biden Drop Out, Kamala Implodes Defending Debate, Biden Donor Revolt, 72% Say Biden Mentally Unfit, Far Right Stuns Macron In French Elections, Glenn Greenwald Sounds Off On Biden Age
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJul 1, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Donald Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election
What happenedDonald Trump woncertified result100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.17difficulty=+117skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 117
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 126
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.