Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 20, 2025

Brockman argued Saquon Barkley is the MVP of the 2024 NFL season, and that Jayden Daniels — whom they called the best rookie quarterback ever — will lead the Commanders to the Super Bowl and win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled

50Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

33.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

3 of 3Settlednone still waiting

#36Chris Brockman’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Chris Brockman said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

Jaden Daniels is the best rookie quarterback of all time, and he's going to the Super Bowl.

Chris Brockman, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode: NFL Divisional Round: This Is The Easiest Path For The Chiefs To Win A Super Bowl
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidJan 20, 2025
GradedAug 13–17, 2026

1Washington Commanders to reach the Super Bowl“Jaden Daniels is the best rookie quarterback of all time, and he's going to the Super Bowl.”
2Saquon Barkley to win MVP“Saquon Barkley is hands down the MVP of the twenty twenty four NFL season.”
3Jayden Daniels to win Offensive Rookie of the Year“But he's gonna win offensive Rookie of the Year.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Washington Commanders to reach the Super Bowl¹	Conference Champions	PHI and KC won	50	100	−50
Saquon Barkley to win MVP²	Award Picks	Josh Allen won	0	0	0
Jayden Daniels to win Offensive Rookie of the Year³	Award Picks	Jayden Daniels won	100	0	+100
3 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled			50	33.3

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 award picks and 1 conference champion — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Conference Champions Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked WAS
50Close · naive 100
50this call100a naive guess−50worse than naive1difficulty−50skill
How this was scored
skill:
−50
they picked:
WAS
season:
2024
accuracy:
50
baseline:
100
champions:
PHI, KC
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
yes
Think this is wrong?
2Award Picks Saquon Barkley Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley to win MVP
What happenedJosh Allen woncalled Saquon Barkley
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Saquon Barkley
season:
2024
who won:
Josh Allen
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
3Award Picks Jayden Daniels Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedJayden Daniels won
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_rookie_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was C.J. Stroud, who won it the year before
skill:
100
player:
Jayden Daniels
season:
2024
who won:
Jayden Daniels
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 33.3