Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 9, 2024
Eisen reaffirms their pick of the Rams to win the NFC West despite Seattle's current lead, expects Buffalo to land as the 2 or 3 seed in the AFC, names Josh Allen as their MVP with Sam Darnold finishing top five, floats the Saints picking in the teens, and calls Puka Nacua possibly the best receiver in the league.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original
What Rich Eisen said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromthis is why I chose the Rams to win the NFC West even though the Seahawks are are a game in front of them right now
- Where it was said
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Week 14: Rams Are The Biggest Challenge To The Lions Winning The NFC
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidDec 9, 2024
- GradedAug 14–17, 2026
- 1Los Angeles Rams to win the division“The Rams and this is why I chose the Rams to win the NFC West even though the Seahawks are are a game in front of them right now”
- 2Josh Allen to win MVP“The MVP is down to two guys. MVP is down to one guy, really. I I even though he lost yesterday. Yeah. But he was on other world. Josh, Josh.”
- 3Puka Nacua to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards“Puka might be the best receiver in the NFL.”
- 4Sam Darnold to win top-five MVP finish“Sam Darnell's back in the MVP conversation. No. He's not. He's he's gonna be top five.”
- 5Buffalo Bills to take the top seed“because the Bills should be the two seed or the three seed if the Steelers somehow overtake them because they now have the same record”
- 6New Orleans Saints to pick “one of those teen draft picks”“What about somebody like the Saints who's gonna have one of those teen draft picks.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 100 | 0 | +128 | |
| Josh Allen to win MVP2 | Award Picks | Josh Allen won | 100 | 0 | +128 | |
| Puka Nacua to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards3 | Positional Finishes | Finished #24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sam Darnold to win top-five MVP finish4 | Award Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| Buffalo Bills to take the top seed5 | Seeding, Byes and Home Field | — | — | — | — | |
| New Orleans Saints to pick “one of those teen draft picks”6 | Team Draft Slot Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · 3 waiting | 66.7 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive6 checkable claims — 2 award picks, 1 division winner, 1 positional finish, 1 seeding, byes and home field and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Division WinnersLos Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win the division
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.28difficulty=+128skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 128
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- won the division:
- yes
2Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo Bills
Josh Allen to win MVP
What happenedJosh Allen won100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.28difficulty=+128skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 128
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2024
- who won:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
3Positional FinishesPuka NacuaLos Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards
What happenedFinished #24called #1 · by receiving yards0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.28difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Puka Nacua
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 4
- actual finish:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- predicted finish:
- 1
4Award PicksSam DarnoldMinnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold to win top-five MVP finish
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Seeding, Byes and Home FieldBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to take the top seed
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Team Draft Slot CallsNew Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to pick “one of those teen draft picks”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
66.7naive 0
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.John Breech · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Danny Parkins · Award Picks · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Miss 0
Parkins picked Seattle to win 27-16 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Super Bowl MVP.