Rich Eisen· Dec 9, 2024
Eisen reaffirms his pick of the Rams to win the NFC West despite Seattle's current lead, expects Buffalo to land as the 2 or 3 seed in the AFC, names Josh Allen as his MVP with Sam Darnold finishing top five, floats the Saints picking in the teens, and calls Puka Nacua possibly the best receiver in the league.
“this is why I chose the Rams to win the NFC West even though the Seahawks are are a game in front of them right now”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
6 checkable claims — 2 award picks, 1 division winner, 1 positional finishe, 1 seeding, byes and home field and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersLos Angeles RamsDec 9, 2024
Los Angeles Rams to win the division
“The Rams and this is why I chose the Rams to win the NFC West even though the Seahawks are are a game in front of them right now”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 128
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- won the division:
- yes
- Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo BillsDec 9, 2024
Josh Allen to win MVP
“The MVP is down to two guys. MVP is down to one guy, really. I I even though he lost yesterday. Yeah. But he was on other world. Josh, Josh.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 128
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
Puka Nacua to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards
“Puka might be the best receiver in the NFL.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Puka Nacua
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 4
- actual finish:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Award PicksSam DarnoldMinnesota VikingsDec 9, 2024
Sam Darnold to win top-five MVP finish
“Sam Darnell's back in the MVP conversation. No. He's not. He's he's gonna be top five.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Sam Darnold
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldBuffalo BillsDec 9, 2024
Buffalo Bills to take the top seed
“because the Bills should be the two seed or the three seed if the Steelers somehow overtake them because they now have the same record”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew Orleans SaintsDec 9, 2024
New Orleans Saints to pick “one of those teen draft picks”
“What about somebody like the Saints who's gonna have one of those teen draft picks.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Carter BahnsRoster Spot Calls · Jeshaun JonesMiss · 0A CBS Sports piece expects suspended Vikings receiver Jeshaun Jones to lose his roster battle and be cut by the Aug. 30 deadline, given Minnesota's established receiver group.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Gregg RosenthalAward Picks · Tristan WirfsMiss · 0Rosenthal picked Patrick Mahomes for MVP, Micah Parsons for Defensive Player of the Year, Jahmyr Gibbs for Offensive Player of the Year, Aaron Glenn for Coach of the Year, Travis Hunter for both Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Bill Callahan for Assistant Coach of the Year and Tristan Wirfs for Protector of the Year. He also made depth-chart calls on Adam Thielen and Jalen Coker.
- Jourdan RodrigueAward Picks · Penei SewellMiss · 0Rodrigue picked Patrick Mahomes for MVP, Jared Verse for Defensive Player of the Year, Ja'Marr Chase for Offensive Player of the Year, Mike Vrabel for Coach of the Year, TreVeyon Henderson for Offensive Rookie of the Year and Abdul Carter for Defensive Rookie of the Year, with Jesse Minter for Assistant Coach of the Year and Penei Sewell for Protector of the Year.
- Brandon SneideAward Picks · Drake MayeMiss · 0Snyder picks the Seahawks to beat the Patriots 31-23 in Super Bowl 60, believing Seattle pulls away late, and says Drake Maye will finish second in MVP voting behind Matthew Stafford.
- Nick WrightAward Picks · Rashid ShaheedMiss · 0Nick picked Seattle to win the Super Bowl 27-17, citing Seattle's defense, coaching against young quarterbacks and schedule strength, and named Rasheed Shaheed as his dark horse Super Bowl MVP.
- Chris BroussardAward Picks · Cooper KuppMiss · 0Broussard picked New England to beat Seattle 24-21, with Drake May winning Super Bowl MVP, and named Cooper Kupp as his dark horse MVP.
- Eric ManginiAward Picks · Drake MayeMiss · 0Mangini picked the Patriots 23-20 with Drake May as Super Bowl MVP, and earlier named Kayshon Boutte ("Kaeshawn Booty") as his dark horse MVP.