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Jonah GoldbergNov 4, 2022

Goldberg expects a normal midterm backlash against an unpopular president: Republicans gaining roughly 24 House seats, close to the post-1992 average, and winning the Senate with 52 seats.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Dispatch PodcastHear the original

0 of 3calls landed1 close call · 2 misses · all settled
21.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
78.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 3Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Jonah Goldberg said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
And they take the senate by 52 seats.
Jonah Goldberg, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Dispatch Podcast
The episode
Your Midterms Questions, Answered
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidNov 4, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 10, 2026
  1. 1Control of Congress“And they take the senate by 52 seats.”
  2. 2Seat Counts“I think the Republicans get fairly close to the average since 1992, which is what? 24 seats in the house, something like that.”
  3. 3Seat Counts“And they take the senate by 52 seats.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
“And they take the senate by 52 seats.”1Control of Congress—0100−101
“I think the Republicans get fairly close to the average since…”2Seat Counts92555−30.3
“And they take the senate by 52 seats.”3Seat Counts494080−40.4
3 calls · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled21.778.3

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 21.7 out of 100, against 78.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Control of Congress

    “And they take the senate by 52 seats.”

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.01difficulty−101skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    −101
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2022-senate
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    4
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    who controlled it before:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Seat Counts

    “I think the Republicans get fairly close to the average since 1992, which is what? 24 seats in the house, something like that.”

    What happened9called fairly close to the average since 1992, which is what? 24 seats in the house, something like that
    25Miss · naive 55
    25this call55a naive guess−30worse than naive1.01difficulty−30.3skill
    How this was scored
    election year:
    2022
    party:
    Republican
    seats after:
    222
    skill:
    −30.3
    topic:
    elections
    what happened:
    9
    in their words:
    fairly close to the average since 1992, which is what? 24 seats in the house, something like that
    result from:
    house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
    chamber:
    2022-house
    what they counted:
    net seats
    accuracy:
    25
    baseline:
    55
    they said:
    24
    days before the vote when called:
    4
    difficulty:
    1.01
    seats before:
    213
    the naive guess:
    no change from the previous election
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the naive guess said:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Seat Counts

    “And they take the senate by 52 seats.”

    What happened49called 52
    40Close · naive 80
    40this call80a naive guess−40worse than naive1.01difficulty−40.4skill
    How this was scored
    election year:
    2022
    party:
    Republican
    seats after:
    49
    skill:
    −40.4
    topic:
    elections
    what happened:
    49
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2022-senate
    what they counted:
    seats held
    accuracy:
    40
    baseline:
    80
    they said:
    52
    days before the vote when called:
    4
    difficulty:
    1.01
    seats before:
    50
    the naive guess:
    no change from the previous election
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the naive guess said:
    50
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    21.7naive 78.3
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More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.