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Mel KiperFeb 25, 2026

Kiper's latest mock draft, as described on the show, had Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 to Las Vegas, safety Caleb Downs No. 2 to the Jets, Arbel Reese No. 4 to Tennessee, and edge rusher Ruben Behn to Cincinnati in the first round.

Said on air, transcribed by us · NFL Live (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 close call · 1 waiting
87.8Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 4Settled1 still waiting
1Waitingnot graded yet

What Mel Kiper said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Zero surprise at the top. Fernando Mendoza can start house hunting in Vegas.
Mel Kiper, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
NFL Live (podcast)
The episode
Defensive Lineman at the Combine
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidFeb 25
  2. GradedOct 1
  1. 1Arvell Reese to be picked at number 4“The other being the aforementioned Reese, number four overall for Tennessee, and new defensive minded head coach, Robert Saleh.”
  2. 2Caleb Downs to be picked at number 2“Maybe a shock at two, though. A safety Caleb Downs joining Aaron Glenn and the jets.”
  3. 3Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1“Zero surprise at the top. Fernando Mendoza can start house hunting in Vegas.”
  4. 4Ruben Behn to be picked “round one”“Mel Kiper had Ruben Behn, Edge rusher, going to Cincy in his latest mock draft... Bane, one of 11 front seven players Mel Kiper has going in round one”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 41Mock Draft PicksWent 595.7650+25
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 22Mock Draft PicksWent 1167.7150+25
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 13Mock Draft PicksWent 110050+25
Ruben Behn to be picked “round one”4Mock Draft Picks————
4 calls · 2 hits · 1 close call · 1 waiting87.850

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

4 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 87.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
4They said
5What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseTennessee Titans

    Arvell Reese to be picked at number 4

    What happenedWent 5mocked at 4
    95.76Hit · naive 50
    75this mock’s order50a shuffled mock25better than naive1difficulty+25skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    25
    player:
    Arvell Reese
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    5
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    75
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsNew York Jets

    Caleb Downs to be picked at number 2

    What happenedWent 11mocked at 2
    67.71Close · naive 50
    75this mock’s order50a shuffled mock25better than naive1difficulty+25skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    25
    player:
    Caleb Downs
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    67.71
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    11
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    67.71
    predicted pick:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    75
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    What happenedWent 1mocked at 1
    100Hit · naive 50
    75this mock’s order50a shuffled mock25better than naive1difficulty+25skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    25
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    75
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Mock Draft PicksRuben BehnCincinnati Bengals

    Ruben Behn to be picked “round one”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  5. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    87.8naive 50

Who this take is about

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