Aaron SchatzAug 12, 2025

Schatz gives FTN's top five projected teams for 2025 (Ravens, Lions, Bills, Chiefs, Commanders), picks Bills over... a Bills-Lions Super Bowl matchup, names Bijan Robinson the top fantasy running back, and tabs Packers rookie Matthew Golden as a sleeper who breaks out.

Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 5calls landed2 hits · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled

47.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5 of 5Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Aaron Schatz said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I'm going with the Bills and the Lions as my Super Bowl.

Aaron Schatz, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Move the Sticks (podcast)
The episode: GMFB Tuesday Hour 1: Confidence in Rams & Stafford? Shedeur Depth Chart rank, Aaron Schatz joins!
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidAug 12, 2025
GradedAug 7–17, 2026

1Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl“I'm going with the Bills and the Lions as my Super Bowl.”
2Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl“I'm going with the Bills and the Lions as my Super Bowl.”
3Power Rankings“And these are my top five projected teams for twenty twenty five. Ravens, Lions, Bills, Chiefs and Commanders.”
4Matthew Golden to be 1st on the depth chart“he is what they're looking for, which is a clear number one”
5Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points“he likes Bijon Robinson over Saquon Barkley in most leagues... that's why we've got Jean Robinson actually as the top running back this year.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl¹	Conference Champions	NE and SEA won	0	0	0
Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl²	Conference Champions	NE and SEA won	0	0	0
“And these are my top five projected teams for twenty twenty…”³	Power Rankings	—	80	75	+10
Matthew Golden to be 1st on the depth chart⁴	Depth Chart Calls	No. 4	75	83.33	−16.67
Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points⁵	Positional Finishes	Finished #3	83.33	91.67	−16.67
5 calls · 2 hits · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled			47.7	50

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 1 depth chart call, 1 positional finish and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 47.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Conference Champions Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked BUF
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
2Conference Champions Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked DET
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
DET
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
3Power Rankings
“And these are my top five projected teams for twenty twenty five. Ravens, Lions, Bills, Chiefs and Commanders.”
VerdictHit
80Hit · naive 75
80this call75a naive guess5better than naive2difficulty+10skill
How this was scored
skill:
10
method:
spearman
season:
2025
accuracy:
80
baseline:
75
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
5
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
4Depth Chart Calls Matthew Golden Green Bay Packers
Matthew Golden to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 4called No. 1 · by receptions
75Close · naive 83.33
75this call83.33a naive guess−8.33worse than naive2difficulty−16.67skill
How this was scored
club:
GB
skill:
−16.67
player:
Matthew Golden
season:
2025
accuracy:
75
baseline:
83.33
position:
WR
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
4
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
5Positional Finishes Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #3called #1 · by fantasy points
83.33Hit · naive 91.67
83.33this call91.67a naive guess−8.34worse than naive2difficulty−16.67skill
How this was scored
skill:
−16.67
player:
Bijan Robinson
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
91.67
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
4
actual finish:
3
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
47.7naive 50